Trump Says World Becoming a ‘Casino’ as Soldier Charged Over Polymarket Maduro Bets

In brief

• U.S. president Donald Trump said the world has become “somewhat of a casino” following the rise of prediction markets.
• A U.S. soldier has been charged with using classified information to profit on Maduro-related bets.
• Trump’s son, Donald Jr. serves as an advisor to prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said he wasn't happy about the growing influence of prediction markets, after U.S. authorities charged a soldier with exploiting classified information to place profitable bets tied to the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

“You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino and you look at what’s going on all over the world in Europe and every place they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favour of it,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.

Q: "People suspect that there's insider trading happening on these prediction markets around the war. Are you concerned?"

Trump: "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino." pic.twitter.com/gESZk6GF2Z

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) April 23, 2026

“I don’t like it conceptually but it is what it is. I think that I’m not happy with it,” Trump said, adding that, “They have all these different sites, they have predictive markets. It’s a crazy world, it’s a much different world than it was.”

His son, Donald Trump Jr., serves as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket and has promoted their usefulness, particularly during election coverage, arguing they can outpace traditional media in reflecting outcomes. A spokesperson for Trump Jr. previously told CNN that he does not trade on prediction markets and has not interacted with the federal government on behalf of either company.

President Trump himself ran a casino empire in the 1980s before a string of bankruptcies shuttered operations.

Prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, uses the USD1 stablecoin issued by Trump-backed DeFi platform World Liberty Financial as its settlement layer.

Monthly trading volume on prediction markets climbed from about $1.2 billion in early 2025 to more than $20 billion by January 2026, with over 800,000 unique wallets active each month, according to TRM Labs. Activity on these platforms increasingly centers on geopolitics, macroeconomic developments and elections, turning them into closely watched gauges of real-world events.

Prediction market scrutiny intensifies

Scrutiny of the industry intensified this week after federal prosecutors unveiled charges against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army soldier accused of leveraging classified knowledge of a military operation involving Maduro to generate profits.

Prosecutors allege Van Dyke earned more than $400,000 by trading on Polymarket contracts tied to the likelihood and timing of U.S. intervention in Venezuela and Maduro’s removal from power. Authorities say he had access to sensitive details of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the mission that led to Maduro’s capture in early January 2026.

Between late December and late January, Van Dyke allegedly placed about $33,000 across 13 wagers, consistently betting that U.S. forces would enter Venezuela and that Maduro would be ousted before month’s end. After the operation became public and markets resolved in his favor, he withdrew most of the proceeds and took steps to obscure his identity, including attempting to delete his account and moving funds through cryptocurrency channels, according to the indictment.

The Justice Department charged him with offenses including misuse of confidential government information, wire fraud and commodities fraud. Officials stressed that laws governing classified material apply regardless of the emerging nature of prediction markets.

“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said.

Companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi have faced legal challenges and regulatory pressure in multiple jurisdictions, with critics arguing they operate as unlicensed gambling services.

The firms, however, maintain that their products function as financial tools designed to aggregate information and forecast probabilities rather than facilitate traditional betting.

Decrypt has reached out to the White House and Polymarket for comment, and will update this article should they respond.

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