Germans Are Not Panicking Over Trump’s Troop Threats

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Trump administration officials said last week that their abrupt decision to pull 5,000 American troops from Germany was meant as a punishment, for German criticism of the war in Iran as well as what the Americans judged to be insufficient military support for their campaign.

Germans, though, do not seem to feel particularly punished.

Leaders in Berlin, German security analysts and other officials and citizens across the country have expressed little concern in the days following the announcement over losing a small chunk of the about 35,000 American troops currently stationed in the country.

If they have any anxieties over the move, they appear more linked to the economic hit that could be felt in communities that depend on American military institutions, and not because the reduced troop count will make Germany less safe.

“Whether there are now 5,000 more or fewer American soldiers actually stationed in Germany makes no difference at all,” Robert Crumbach, the infrastructure minister for the German state of Brandenburg, said on Monday in an interview before a civic event in Potsdam, an affluent city just outside Berlin.

“If there were to be a complete withdrawal, that would be a significant problem,” he added. “I’m not opposed to that either, but it has to be a longer, very well-prepared process,” he said.

America has long deployed large numbers of military personnel in Germany. Their role was first to occupy and stabilize the country after World War II; then to deter Soviet threats during the Cold War; and more recently to support American operations in wars from Afghanistan to Iraq.

Mr. Trump attempted, and failed, to reduce that presence in his first term. After returning to the White House, he did not revisit the issue until last week, when Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, criticized America’s Iran war strategy and said Iran had “humiliated” America with its approach to peace negotiations.

Mr. Trump vented fury at Mr. Merz’s remarks on social media. By midweek he was threatening to pull troops. On Friday, the Pentagon said it would follow through, by removing 5,000 over the next year.

German officials projected calm at the news. For most of the weekend, their only response came from Boris Pistorius, the defense minister, who called the announcement “foreseeable.”

On Sunday, in a television interview, Mr. Merz expressed no alarm over the decision.

“They are constantly redeploying their troop units worldwide, and we are affected by that too,” Mr. Merz said. “That has always gone up a bit and down a bit in recent years.”

This measured response shows that German leaders are learning not to get too caught up in Mr. Trump’s rhetorical roller coasters, said Julia Friedlander, the C.E.O. of Atlantik-Brücke, a nonprofit that promotes German-American partnership.

“Nothing sets them off in a panic, compared to the first administration,” she said.

Security analysts largely agreed there was little for Germans to fret about from the troop announcement, particularly as Germany has invested hugely in its own military since Mr. Trump’s first term.

The loss of 5,000 troops “ultimately doesn’t have much ramification for the strategic posture here,” said Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, a Berlin-based political analyst and author of a German book about Mr. Trump, “The American Wake-Up Call.”

Many in Berlin were more worried by a second part of the Pentagon announcement: a decision to cancel the deployment of an American missile unit that had been planned for Germany. Meant as a deterrent, it would have included ballistic missiles capable of hitting Russia, the first to be stationed by the U.S. in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

“Putin will be pleased, because there is no counterweight to Russia’s nuclear arsenal, and the Europeans have a huge gap in their conventional capabilities, making them more vulnerable to blackmail,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, a former German colonel, who is now a lawmaker in Parliament.

Jana Puglierin, a security expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a research group, said the move was just as problematic for the way in which it was carried out.

The move “weakens” Europe’s position against Russia, she said, “because the Americans did this without prior consultation or coordination.”

The other worries stirred by the troop decision were economic, and largely confined to areas that rely on American military salaries to sustain businesses.

“Some small localities, if there’s a reduced presence, they would take an economic hit,” Ms. Friedlander said.

Derya Uluc, 47, runs a dry cleaning shop about a mile from Ramstein Air Base, a large American military installation in southwest Germany that has served as a staging ground for some U.S. attacks on Iran. She estimated that U.S. soldiers make up about 70 percent of her customers, often bringing their uniforms for cleaning. “From simple stripes to stars, I know all the ranks,” she said.

For years, her family shop has survived economic downturn and a pandemic, Ms. Uluc said, but she has never had to deal with a major troop withdrawal.

“I have to be honest, business in Ramstein only works because of the Americans,” she said.

Tatiana Firsova contributed reporting from Potsdam, Germany.

Jim Tankersley is the Berlin bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

Christopher F. Schuetze is a reporter for The Times based in Berlin, covering politics, society and culture in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

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