Bitcoin vs gold: BTC's three-month uptrend has snapped

BTC's three-month uptrend against gold has broken down amid strong inflows into gold and precious metals ETFs.

What to know:

• Bitcoin’s three-month uptrend versus gold has broken down.
• ETF flows point to a renewed bias for hard assets, with over $2 billion exiting BTC funds while gold and precious metal ETFs attract fresh inflows.
• The shift signals weakening momentum for bitcoin as a “store of value,” with gold poised to outperform in the near term.

Bitcoin's three-month uptrend against gold seems to have ended, as ETF flows shift toward gold and other precious metals.

That's evident from the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures the per-coin dollar price of BTC against the per-ounce dollar price of gold. This is the chart that tells you which "store of value" investors actually prefer at any given moment.

Since early March, bitcoin has been the clear winner, lifting the ratio higher from roughly 12 points to 18 points.

But not anymore.

The growth has stalled lately, and, over the past 24 hours, it has decisively turned lower, snapping the three-month uptrend.

The ratio has penetrated the uptrend line, characterizing BTC's mini-bull run against gold. In the world of technical analysis, this is a major breakdown, signaling a renewed shift in momentum in favour of gold.

Why this matters

The signal is not just about lines on the chart, but tells us where the smart money may be headed next.

When the Iran war began in late February, and oil prices shot up to over $100 per barrel, investors looked for a place to park cash. And for a while, they bet on bitcoin as a haven, as evidenced by the upswing in the BTC-gold ratio.

But the same ratio has now invalidated its uptrend, pointing to renewed investor rotation into gold.

Note that chart patterns like trendline breakdowns can and often are fleeting, but for now, the message is clear: gold could outperform BTC in the near-term.

Market flows support that interpretation.

Precious metal ETFs in demand

Exchange-traded funds tied to bitcoin have fallen out of investor favor, losing over $2 billion in two weeks amid a hardening of Treasury yields and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates in the U.S.

Meanwhile, gold and precious metal funds are in demand. These funds drew $2.34 billion in investor money during the week ended May 20, extending their inflow streak to a second consecutive week, Reuters reported, citing LSEG Lipper data.

As of writing, bitcoin changed hands near $75,600, down 0.3% from midnight UTC hours and gold traded largely flat around $4,500.

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