Why are Europe's biggest defense projects in trouble?

Europe wanted to build a joint next-generation fighter jet. Instead, the bloc's biggest defense project may now produce two separate warplanes.

Airbus, which represents the German and Spanish side of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), told DW it is open to restructuring the program after years of political and industrial disputes. 

That could include a "two-fighter solution" allowing France and Germany to develop separate combat aircraft while still cooperating on drones, sensors and the digital systems linking the battlefield in real time.

The twist: the fighter jet itself may no longer be the project's most important part.

The proposal marks a serious shift for a project once billed as a symbol of Franco-German military unity.

Europe's massive defense gamble

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Can FCAS still be saved?

"On FCAS, work is ongoing with the French, German and Spanish governments to decide on the project's way forward," an Airbus spokesperson told DW.

Airbus Chief Executive Guillaume Faury said the wider program still makes sense, even if the fighter jet at its center remains blocked.

"The deadlock of a single pillar should not jeopardize the entire future of this high-tech European capability," he said, adding that Airbus would support a two-fighter option if governments asked for it. 

The dispute is now raising a wider question: Can Europe's biggest powers still build major weapons systems together?

The story behind FCAS

FCAS was launched by France and Germany in 2017, with Spain joining later. Valued at roughly €100 billion ($116 bn), the project aims to deliver a sixth-generation air combat system by around 2040.

The program goes far beyond a next-generation fighter jet. It also includes drones, remote carriers, engines and a "combat cloud" designed to connect aircraft, sensors and battlefield data in real time.

But the fighter jet itself has become the main source of friction.

Nuclear ambitions divide FCAS partners

France wants the future aircraft to operate from aircraft carriers and carry nuclear weapons. Being a non-nuclear power itself, Germany does not share those requirements. Berlin has already decided to buy US-made F-35 fighter jets for NATO nuclear-sharing missions.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently acknowledged the divide publicly. He said France needed a nuclear-capable next-generation aircraft, while Germany did not currently require the same capability for the Bundeswehr. If the two sides could not resolve those differences, he warned, "then we can't maintain the project."

F-35 "require a lot of attention": DW's William Glucroft

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The corporate clash is slowing FCAS

The political disagreement is a result of an industrial one.

Dassault Aviation, the French maker of the Rafale fighter jet, wants clear leadership over the new combat aircraft. Airbus Defence and Space represents German and Spanish industrial interests and wants a larger role.

The result has been a long-running dispute over leadership, work share and technology transfer. Several efforts to mediate between the companies have failed to produce a breakthrough. 

Airbus has now signaled that the answer may be to stop forcing one aircraft to meet every need.

The cloud may survive

For many analysts, the most important part of FCAS may no longer be the fighter jet itself.

The combat cloud — the digital system linking aircraft, drones, sensors and weapons — is increasingly seen as the area where European cooperation still has a strong case.

Defense expert Christian Mölling told DW that the combat cloud matters because Europe remains heavily dependent on the United States in this field. Other experts also argue that drones, software and battlefield networking could continue even if the fighter jet element is split or scaled back. 

That would be a smaller political victory than the original vision. But it could prevent FCAS from collapsing completely.

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Europe's future 'super tank' also at stake

The trouble around FCAS is now spilling into another flagship Franco-German project: the Main Ground Combat System, or MGCS. 

MGCS is meant to replace Germany's Leopard 2 and France's Leclerc tanks. It was launched alongside FCAS in 2017 as part of a broader political bargain between Paris and Berlin.

The division was clear. France would lead the future fighter jet through Dassault. Germany would lead the future tank because of its armored vehicle industry.

The idea was not only to build weapons. It was to bind two of Europe's biggest military powers together.

But that bargain now looks fragile. If FCAS is split, restructured or weakened, it could upset the balance behind MGCS.

MGCS has already faced delays. France and Germany agreed in 2024 to move forward with the next phase, but the system is not expected to enter service before around 2040. 

A test for Europe's defense industry

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has pushed European governments to increase defense spending and reduce their reliance on the United States. Since 2022, the European Union has called for more joint arms procurement and a stronger European defense industry.

But the turmoil surrounding FCAS shows how difficult that ambition can be in practice. 

Defence analysts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace say, the outcome of FCAS could shape the future of European defense cooperation for years to come. If the program derails, governments may become far more cautious about launching multinational weapons projects on this scale, again.

Edited by Nina Haase