What will happen to Iran's nuclear material?

Iran's nuclear program has been a source of strife for decades, with two generations of Iranians now associating words like as yellowcake, centrifuges, and enrichment with crisis, instability, and war. The regime's insistence on uranium enrichment has exposed the country to heavy sanctions, and some estimates have put the direct economic damage at around $3.5 trillion (€3 trillion).

Throughout the recent military conflicts and fragile ceasefires between Tehran and Washington, the program has once again taken center stage. The US seems particularly focused on Iran's nuclear stockpile — Tehran is believed to have over 440 kilos (970 pounds) of uranium already enriched to 60%, far above what is necessary for civilian purposes. Theoretically, this material could be enriched further to reach 90% in a relatively short time, making it suitable for use in nuclear weapons.

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US President Donald Trump often refers to the material as "nuclear dust" in reference to the June 2025 bombing which he claims "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program. Trump has repeatedly stated that the US will take possession of it, but also provided contradictory statements on how this will be done, including claims that the US will be "going in, with Iran, with lots of excavators" to dig it out from under the rubble, presumably after a peace accord is reached. In April, Trump said Iran had agreed to hand over its stockpile, while last week he seemed to indicate that the US will "take a hit" because "we have to make a journey down to Iran to take the nuclear weapon."

Iran has yet to confirm any deal involving the uranium stockpile. Talking to US broadcaster CBS In March, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the material remains under the rubble following last year's attack and that Iran had "no program" and "no plan" to recover the material.

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However, Araghchi was also careful not to exclude the possibility of diluting the highly enriched uranium as part of a future deal with the US.

Location of Iran's nuclear stockpile unclear

Recent media reports also indicated that Iran was ready to dilute part of its stockpile while transferring the rest to a third country. This weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country was ready store Iran's enriched uranium.

However, it is still unclear where the material is located and what technical challenges needed to be overcome in order to access it.

Iran's top three nuclear facilities — Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz — all suffered heavy damage during last year's Operation "Midnight Hammer."

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in late April 2026 that the majority of Iran's highly enriched uranium was probably still located at the Isfahan nuclear complex.

According to him, 18 blue containers believed to be carrying around 200 kilograms of enriched uranium entered a tunnel at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center on June 9, 2025, only four days before the start of the 12-day war. 

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Others, however, offer a different perspective, including speculation that the material is now stored at Fordow or Iran's Bushehr nuclear powerplant.

Iran has indicated it would only retrieve the material under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

"Removing this material from Iran is not technically impossible, but it also depends on many other factors. Under strict IAEA supervision, the material could be transported and taken out of the country. Special safety measures would have to be observed. Since Iran stores enriched uranium underground, at Fordow, physical access is difficult," said Roland Wolff, the specialist in medical physics and radiation protection.

Libya as a role model?

The technical challenges involved in removing more than 440 kilograms of enriched uranium from Iran are only one side of the equation, with security issues likely to take precedence.

John Bolton, former US ambassador to the UN who served national security advisor during Trump's first term, pointed to the dismantling of the Libyan nuclear weapons program in the early 2000s, noting that the program took place in a "permissive environment" rather than in the middle of a conflict.

"In the case of the Libyan nuclear weapons program, for example, which was much smaller, much earlier in its development than Iran, to be sure, in 2003 and 2004, US and UK officials came in and literally just packaged it up and took it to Oak Ridge, Tennessee, where it is now," Bolton told DW.

"I think we could do something similar with Iran's program in a permissive environment, but it would take a lot longer because it's so much further along."

"I think in the absence of a permissive environment, the most important thing is not to allow the highly enriched uranium or other aspects of the program to fall into the hands of terrorists or other rogue states. And in conditions of uncertainty inside Iran, that might require somehow isolating the key locations, Isfahan, Fordow, Natanz, perhaps a few others, to making sure the material was safe."

Iran's regime 'fanatic' ideology

Bolton also told DW that "the only way to be certain about Iran not having a nuclear weapons capability is to remove the regime of the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guard."

"Their ideology is fanatic and based on aspirations to achieve dominance within the Islamic community and hegemony in the geographic Middle East," he added.

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"They may make temporary concessions. I wouldn't trust them to abide by their commitments over the long term, but it looks like we are moving in that direction where there may be restraints or inhibitions or other steps taken against the nuclear program, but the fundamental reality — that Iran would still have the capacity to press ahead with nuclear weapons development — would remain."

"I think that's very dangerous, but that looks to be the direction we may be heading in."

Edited by: Shamil Shams