What could a peace deal between Iran and the US look like?

Negotiations for a comprehensive peace deal with Iran could "take a few days," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said, tempering expectations for an imminent resolution to the nearly three month-old conflict in the Middle East.

While Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson indicated that conclusions had been reached on many points within a potential 14-point memorandum of understanding, officials stressed this does not signal a swift end to the conflict.

Following a ceasefire in early April, both sides remain at loggerheads over several issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel's conflict in Lebanon with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, and Tehran's demands for sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets.

After weeks of largely indirect discussions, both Washington and Tehran claim progress on a memorandum of understanding designed to halt the war and provide negotiators with a 60-day window to finalise a deal.

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What is contained in the deal?

The proposed framework centres on ending the war and lifting a US naval blockade, in exchange for Tehran guaranteeing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei.

Senior Iranian diplomat Hossein Nooshabadi told ISNA news agency that Iran's draft for an initial agreement encompasses an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, the release of blocked Iranian assets, the lifting of the US naval blockade, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of US forces from Iran's vicinity, and the freedom to sell Iranian oil.

Crucially, Nooshabadi stated that this initial draft contained no commitments regarding Iran's nuclear programme.

However, a senior official in US President Donald Trump's administration, speaking anonymously, indicated that Iran had agreed "in principle" to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran's highly enriched uranium.

Iranian sources, meanwhile, suggested a framework deal would solely focus on ending the war, establishing a 30-day period for movement through Hormuz and shipping, and potentially offering some financial relief.

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What would still need to be worked out?

This initial phase would then be followed by negotiations on more complex matters, such as the status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, specific details concerning the Strait, and the sequencing of various points outlined in the preliminary agreement, including sanctions relief and security measures.

Should Iran's Supreme National Security Council approve the memorandum of understanding, it would then be forwarded to the country's supreme leader for final endorsement.

Both Baghaei and Nooshabadi confirmed that if the first phase of the agreement progresses, the nuclear issue could be reviewed and negotiated during the subsequent 60-day period. The last nuclear deal, struck in 2015 and subsequently abandoned by Trump in 2018, required years of intricate negotiations involving large teams of technical experts.

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What sticking points remain?

Tehran views its control of Hormuz and Washington its blockade of Iranian ports as their primary points of leverage. The United States suspects Iran aims to develop a nuclear weapon, a claim Iran consistently denies, asserting its atomic programme is exclusively for peaceful purposes.

The focus remains on Iran's uranium enrichment, which can produce fuel for power but also material for a warhead. A potential agreement might eventually include a lengthy moratorium on enrichment and the export or dilution of existing stockpiles.

Iranian sources suggested Iran might eventually agree to dilute part of its highly enriched uranium in a friendly country to 5% purity, with subsequent return.

However, numerous other issues would still need addressing, including the duration of any nuclear programme halt, the potential dismantling of nuclear sites, the fate of 20% and 5% enriched uranium stockpiles, and the future of Iran’s advanced centrifuges and research and development programmes.

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A key US demand prior to the war was for Iran to limit the range of its ballistic missiles to prevent them from reaching Israel.

Iran has consistently refused to discuss its ballistic missiles, maintaining that its right to conventional weapons is non-negotiable and that it possesses a substantial arsenal.

Iran's economy has been severely impacted by years of sanctions, contributing to nationwide unrest in January. Tehran urgently seeks the lifting of these sanctions, the release of tens of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian oil revenues held in foreign banks, and reparations for war damage.

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