Vance and Rubio are neck-and-neck for Republican nomination in 2028 new poll shows

Republican voters are torn between supporting Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the 2028 GOP presidential nominee, a new poll from Emerson College indicates.

In a late-May survey of roughly 1,000 people, 36 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they would support Vance, while 35 percent said they would support Rubio.

The two top Trump administration officials have long been speculated as potential frontrunners to succeed President Donald Trump in two years, but the new poll shows that support for both has changed substantially over the last few months.

Between February and May, Vance lost 16 percentage points from likely Republican primary voters while Rubio gained 15 percentage points – indicating that the secretary of state has resonated more with potential voters.

Although Vance still leads Rubio in the Emerson College Polling survey, as well as others, Rubio has made significant strides with voters recently.

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Vance, 41, is considered the likely official to take the reins of Trump’s legacy because he’s young, popular among moderate Republicans and appeals to working-class voters. Vance is a more recognizable official and has recently taken on major roles assisting in the Iran peace negotiations and giving speeches around the country to boost Republicans’ chances in the midterms.

But Rubio, 55, has clearly risen in popularity.

The career politician has been given multiple roles in the administration in addition to Secretary of State, earning a reputation for being reliable and experienced. He’s taken on more public-facing roles recently, hosting a White House Press Briefing and making a public display of amends with Pope Leo XIV.

Trump, who will likely have a hand in picking his successor, has teased both men, publicly polling audiences at the White House about which candidate they prefer. He’s also suggested the two could run together as a “dream team.”

But privately, Trump reportedly asks advisers, friends and officials who they think would perform better with the public.

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Neither Vance nor Rubio has declared they are running. Last year, Rubio said that if his friend and colleague were to run for president, he would support him.

“If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio told Vanity Fair.

The Emerson College Polling findings mirror similar results from other surveys that determined Rubio has made a jump with voters. An AtlasIntel survey, conducted in early May, found that 45 percent of Republican respondents would back Rubio, while roughly 30 percent would support Vance.

A McLaughlin & Associates poll determined that, between January and May, Vance lost 10 percentage points worth of support as the potential 2028 Republican candidate. Meanwhile, Rubio gained 11 percentage points worth of support. However, the poll still found that Vance leads Rubio in the preferred candidate.

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