US soldier allegedly made $400k on Polymarket betting on Maduro raid

A US Army Special Forces soldier has been charged with using classified information to make more than $400,000 (€342,480) betting on an online prediction market tied to the January operation that captured former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the US Justice Department said on Thursday.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, of Fayetteville, North Carolina, allegedly used sensitive details from the mission to place around 13 wagers on Polymarket, an online betting market, that US forces would enter Caracas and depose Maduro.

According to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, "Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution" of the military operation to capture Maduro and "used his access to classified information about that operation to personally profit."

He later moved most of the proceeds into a foreign cryptocurrency account before transferring funds to a new brokerage account, prosecutors allege.

What did US authorities say?

Van Dyke was indicted in federal court in Manhattan on charges including unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain and wire fraud.

If convicted on all counts, he faces up to 50 years in prison.

"Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain," Blanche said in a statement.

"Insider trading has no place on Polymarket,” the company said in a statement on the social platform X, adding that it cooperated with investigators.

Other documented incidents of betting on government actions

There have been other instances of bets placed on prediction markets related to the US government:

• Earlier this year, six Polymarket accounts made $1.2 million by betting that the US would attack Iran on Feb. 28, the day the war began. No arrests have been made in this case.
• In March, traders who bet in advance made millions of dollars, according to AFP calculations, after Trump's announcement of "very productive" talks with Iran sent oil prices lower and stocks higher.
• New Polymarket accounts made hundreds of thousands of dollars from precise bets on a US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, the Associated Press reported.

The White House has warned staff against using nonpublic information to trade on prediction markets.

Edited by: Karl Sexton