Ukrainian strikes reshape Russia’s oil exports, cutting budget revenues – expert

Max Pyziur, Director of Downstream, Transportation Fuels, Natural Gas, and Electricity Projects at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, said this in an interview with Ukrinform.

He stressed that Ukrainian attacks caused serious damage to Russia’s refining and petroleum export sector.

“There has been a shift in the balance: you have a decline in petroleum products exported from Russia, and an increase in available crude oil exports,” the expert noted.

He explained that previously Russia exported about 3.5 million barrels of crude oil and roughly 2.5 million barrels of petroleum products per day. Now, by his estimates, crude oil exports have risen to about 4 million barrels per day, while petroleum product exports have fallen to 2 million.

“So altogether it is still around 6 million barrels per day combined,” Pyziur said.

The expert added that Ukraine is targeting both terminals and oil refineries, and disruptions in the refining sector impair Russia’s capacity to process hydrocarbons.

At the same time, oil production itself has not changed significantly, remaining at about 9–10 million barrels per day.

Analysts assess these figures based on export volumes and domestic consumption in Russia.

Pyziur also emphasized that sanctions have primarily affected Russia’s budget revenues rather than physical export volumes. After tougher sanctions were introduced in August 2025, Russia was forced to sell oil at lower prices, reducing export duties and budget income.

However, he noted that after March 1 the situation shifted due to a surge in global oil prices following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Russia is now maximizing the amount of money it can bring into the national treasury,” Pyziur said.

As reported earlier, Germany stated that Europe will never return to Russian oil and gas.