Ukraine needs scenario planning and unconventional solutions, expert says

The world is entering a phase of transformations that are undermining the foundations of the international order established after World War II, while Ukraine is demonstrating unprecedented resilience in resisting aggression.

This assessment was shared in an interview with Ukrinform by Oleksiy Haran, Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and research advisor at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

According to him, current geopolitical processes indicate a gradual erosion of the established “rules of the game” in international relations.

“We are indeed witnessing processes that are effectively breaking the principles of the world order formed after 1945. And the scale of these changes was previously underestimated,” the expert noted.

He pointed out that today’s challenges – tensions between Europe and the United States and the rise in populism – have historical parallels, though European institutions had previously managed to overcome them successfully. In particular, despite crises, EU integration deepened, while centrist forces maintained dominance.

At the same time, Haran noted that right-wing populism in Europe is growing, although moderate political forces – the European People’s Party, socialists, and liberals – still hold the majority in the European Parliament.

“The balance still remains with center-right and center-left forces, but the number of political surprises is increasing,” he said, suggesting that right-wing populists could come to power in France.

The expert also outlined the evolution of the global order: from the bipolar system of the Cold War to the idea of the “end of history,” formulated by Francis Fukuyama, and then to multipolarity.

“We are now moving toward a world where the very concept of rules is weakening. Although it is possible that it will become bipolar again – with the United States and China as centers of power,” he added.

Haran also commented on the policies of Donald Trump, noting that isolationism has deep roots in American tradition. As an example, he cited the period after World War I, when the League of Nations was created, but the United States did not join despite the position of President Woodrow Wilson.

After 1945, the United States chose a different model – reliance on alliances, particularly NATO. However, these approaches are now eroding.

“After Trump, there will likely be a partial return to the previous strategy, but trust in the United States will already be undermined,” the expert believes.

Against this backdrop, countries are forced to seek new security models, taking into account threats from Russia, China, and North Korea.

Read also: Tusk warns NATO disintegration is greatest threat to transatlantic unity

Commenting on Ukraine’s prospects, Haran emphasized the need for a flexible foreign policy without excessive dependence on a single partner. “What is needed is a calm, balanced policy, work with different scenarios, and the ability to make unconventional decisions,” he stressed.

At the same time, the expert cautioned against excessive pessimism, highlighting Ukraine’s achievements in resisting Russian aggression: “Ukraine has held out – and that is already a fact. We have endured for five years, which is unprecedented in modern history.”

According to Haran, Ukraine is now demonstrating a level of resilience it had never shown before, despite its difficult historical experience.

“Ukraine has never been as strong as it is now – despite all the problems,” the expert concluded.

As Ukrinform previously reported, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Europe can no longer rely on a rules-based world order, and therefore the EU needs a more realistic foreign policy.