Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russia, complicating its ability to conduct offensives – ISW

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.

The report notes that Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials began intensifying their demands for Ukraine to surrender territory that Russia does not control, especially the remainder of unoccupied Donetsk region, in early 2025, when the battlefield was more favorable to Russian forces than in spring 2026. However, Ukrainian forces have been increasing the economic, human, and material costs of Russia's war since then.

"Ukrainian forces have significantly intensified their mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower in early 2026, degrading Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations," the report states.

According to analysts, Russian advances across the theater stalled to an average of 2.9 square kilometers per day in the first four months of 2026, and Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory in April 2026. Russian forces are simultaneously struggling with an increasing casualty rate that has recently exceeded Russia's recruitment rate in late 2025 and into early 2026.

ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin is trying to create a false sense of political urgency among its negotiating partners by trying to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of Donbas, which Russian forces have been unable to take on the battlefield.

Analysts cite recent statements by Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian president who regularly comments on negotiations regarding Ukraine. On May 7, he said that another round of trilateral U.S.-Ukrainian-Russian negotiations currently makes no sense as Ukraine must take "one serious step" of withdrawing from unoccupied Donetsk region before Russia will agree to cease hostilities and continue peace negotiations.

"Ushakov is likely now attempting to justify the Kremlin's refusal to participate in negotiations that do not acquiesce to the Kremlin's long-held demands even though Russia's stagnating battlefield performance is placing the Kremlin in a worse position to extract major political concessions. Ukrainian forces can and will continue to impose higher costs on Russian forces conducting offensive operations in Ukraine, particularly against the Fortress Belt as part of the ongoing spring-summer 2026 offensive that has failed to yield operationally-significant gains so far," the report states.

The Kremlin reportedly has long held a demand over unoccupied Donbas as a precondition for enacting a ceasefire or reaching a peace settlement in Ukraine. Ceding the remainder of unoccupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions would grant Russia control over Ukraine's Fortress Belt, a series of fortified cities that have served as the backbone of Ukraine's defense in the area since 2014.

"This Kremlin demand notably does not guarantee that Ukraine and Russia will conclude a peace agreement, so the Kremlin is effectively demanding territory from which it can launch a renewed offensive against less prepared Ukrainian positions at a time of its choosing during the negotiations process," the analysts concluded.

Photo: General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces