UAE’s secret attack on Iran risks drawing Gulf states into the war
If current precarious ceasefire between US and Iran ends, Emirates are more likely to be targeted by Tehran
The risk of some Gulf states becoming embroiled in a direct war with Iran has risen after it was reported the United Arab Emirates had secretly launched a major attack on Iran during the conflict.
In addition, Kuwait has said that at least four members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been captured trying to carry out “terrorist attacks” on the Kuwaiti-owned Bubiyan Island, the largest island in the Kuwaiti coastal chain.
The UAE assault on Iran, which was undertaken as retaliation for Iranian attacks on its facilities, included a strike on Iran’s Lazan Island just before the 7 April ceasefire was announced, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The news is likely to make the UAE an even clearer target for Iran if the ceasefire is abandoned and the US and Iran restart the conflict. Donald Trump said on Monday the ceasefire was hanging by a thread due to Iran’s failure to make the concessions he is seeking over its nuclear programme.
On Tuesday, the Pentagon said the cost of the war with Iran had risen to nearly $29bn – about $4bn higher than the previous Pentagon estimate given two weeks ago.
In the earlier fighting that began on 28 February the UAE had been selected as a target for missile and drone strikes by Iran. It was disproportionately attacked partly due to the severe diplomatic hostility to Iran expressed by its rulers. The Wall Street Journal report gave details of how that diplomatic hostility extended to military hostility, pointing to images that allegedly showed French Mirage fighter jets and Chinese Wing Long drones (both used by the UAE) operating in Iran.
The UAE had hinted around that time that it wanted to mount reprisal operations, and not just defend its oil and port installations. Iran at the time also accused the UAE and Kuwait of being involved in the attacks.
The UAE has still so far failed to persuade Qatar or Saudi Arabia to do more to counter Iranian attacks or the blockade in the strait of Hormuz that Tehran views as a necessary retaliation to the US attacks. Iran’s intelligence assessment has always been that some Gulf states had allowed their airspace or US bases to be used by American forces to attack Iran.
Europeans, including UK air forces, have also protected Gulf states, but that has largely been sold to domestic audiences as a necessary step to protect neutral Gulf allies that wanted to stay out of the conflict.
The US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, said Israel had sent Iron Dome batteries and personnel to improve UAE defences.
The divisions within Gulf states – notably between Saudi Arabia and the UAE – have in private been focused on whether Arab anger at Iran’s attacks should extend to military reprisals, or whether that will produce a level of Iranian hostility that might threaten the delicate diplomatic relationships between the Gulf states.
Explaining the Saudi position Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US, insisted in an Arab News article this week that Saudi restraint had been wise. He wrote “if the Israeli plan succeeded in igniting war between us and Iran, the region would be transformed into a state of devastation and destruction, and Israel would succeed in imposing its will on the region, remaining the sole actor in our surroundings”.
If Saudi Arabia entered an all-out war today, oil facilities on the eastern coast would be destroyed, desalination plants would be struck, the hajj would be catastrophically affected, and Vision 2030 projects would grind to a halt, it was suggested.
Kuwaiti press published the names of four IRGC commanders that had tried to infiltrate Bubiyan Island on a fishing boat in an incident earlier this month. Iranian media has not reported the episode yet, but the UAE issued a statement expressing solidarity with Kuwait in trying to fend off IRGC “hostile and terrorist acts”. The Iranian ambassador to Kuwait was summoned by the foreign ministry to hear Kuwait’s anger at an attack on its armed forces. Some of the Kuwaiti reporting highlighted a Chinese rather than US presence on the island.
The UAE anger towards Iran partly reflects longstanding ideological differences, including the UAE’s willingness to sign the Abraham Accords normalising relations with Israel, but also a belief that the Emirates had been unjustly singled out for disruption by Iran due to those links with Israel.
The disruption to the UAE it was confirmed includes the near two-year closure of the UAE’s biggest gas plant due to Iranian attacks last month. The owner, Adnoc Gas, said the plant would not be fully repaired until next year.
The aim is to restore the complex’s processing capacity to 80% by the end of 2026, with full capacity achieved in 2027, the company said on Tuesday.
But the UAE stance has also served to build new diplomatic allliances in the Middle East.
Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, hailed the quartet of nations that were avoiding conflict with Iran. “All the circumstances in the region are leading to an alliance that brings together Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.”
The Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, expressing one of the quartet’s most fundamental beliefs, warning against “Israeli expansionism”, which “remains the number one challenge to stability, security in our region”.
He added: “What the Gulf is going through should not lead to losing focus on Gaza.
“Expansionism in Gaza, Beirut, the West Bank and Syria has cost many lives and forced many more to flee home. Regional countries and the international community should be more sensitive about this issue,” he said.
Iran held talks with Oman on Tuesday about its plans to reorganise the administration of shipping passing through the strait of Hormuz, including by charging for services to shipping companies.
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