Trump’s China return: what’s changed since his ‘friendly’ 2017 visit
Nearly a decade after his first-term visit, Trump returns to Beijing amid tensions over tariffs, Taiwan and tech rivalry
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What to expect
Pragmatic deals over grand resets
Don’t look for a historic breakthrough. The focus is expected to be on extending the trade truce, locking in fresh Chinese purchases of American goods, and keeping tensions from boiling over.
Big-ticket items on the table
Watch for announcements on Boeing jets, agricultural products, energy deals, rare earth supply stability, and cooperation on fentanyl.
Tough talks on Taiwan
Beijing is pushing Washington to move away from “strategic ambiguity” towards explicitly opposing Taiwan independence and supporting reunification, according to sources. Tensions rose in February last year when the US removed language opposing Taiwanese independence from an official fact sheet. While some see Trump’s recent delays in arms sales to Taiwan as encouraging, analysts doubt he will make major concessions.Other thorny issues
Through sanctions and public calls, the US is pressing China to use its influence on Iran to end the crisis in the Middle East. However, Beijing blames the US and Israel for the conflict and is resisting the sanctions. This mutual mistrust risks turning the Iran issue into a fresh source of friction during the summit. Other thorny geopolitical issues might include North Korea and the South China Sea.
The bottom line
Short-term wins for US exporters are likely, but deeper structural problems, such as AI and other technological competition, supply chain security, and the Taiwan issue, are unlikely to be solved in one visit.
Pageantry meets personal chemistry
Anticipate the full red-carpet treatment, grand banquets and plenty of Trump handshakes with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump is likely to highlight his “great relationship” with Xi, again.
Melania Trump's fashion diplomacy during her China visit
Melania Trump's fashion diplomacy during her China visitFlashback to 2017: the glamorous first visit
Trump was offered a “state visit-plus” reception on his November 2017 trip. He and Melania were treated to a private tour of the Forbidden City – including a Peking opera performance – as well as a lavish state dinner alongside Xi and first lady Peng Liyuan. Trump openly praised Xi as a “very special man” and China as a “great country”. The two leaders have maintained a personal rapport in the years since, even as ties between Washington and Beijing have soured.The trip produced headline-grabbing business deals worth more than US$250 billion, covering everything from energy projects and Boeing aircraft to agricultural products. Many involved letters of intent rather than firm contracts, but they gave Trump the “wins” he wanted to showcase back home.Post 2017: a deteriorating relationship
2018 trade war
In the second half of 2018, less than a year after the visit, Trump slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions of US dollars of Chinese goods. Beijing hit back with tariffs of its own. The goodwill of 2017 quickly evaporated.
Covid-19 fallout
The emergence of Covid-19 in Wuhan, in late 2019, and the resulting global pandemic supercharged mistrust between the two nations. Trump’s attacks on Beijing’s handling of the outbreak – and his repeated use of the term “China virus” – deepened the divide.2020 consulate showdown
In a dramatic escalation of tensions, the US ordered China to close its Houston consulate in July 2020, citing espionage concerns. China retaliated by ordering the closure of the American consulate in Chengdu. The tit-for-tat moves marked a new low in diplomatic relations.
Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan trip
US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile visit to Taipei in August 2022 triggered Beijing’s fury, prompting large-scale People’s Liberation Army drills around Taiwan and the suspension of key bilateral dialogues.2023 balloon drama
In February 2023, the US Air Force shot down a high-altitude Chinese balloon that had been drifting across the US mainland. While Beijing claimed it was a civilian weather balloon blown off course, Washington characterised the balloon as surveillance equipment.‘America first’
In his second term, Trump launched his aggressive “America first” approach, imposing steep tariffs on Chinese goods, while citing trade imbalances, fentanyl flows and national security concerns. China retaliated with its own duties, and the tit-for-tat spiral pushed US tariffs to a peak of 145 per cent in April 2025.
AdvertisementThese flashpoints – along with tech export bans and supply chain decoupling – shifted the US-China relationship from wary engagement to open strategic rivalry.
Enduring flashpoints to watch
Taiwan
Arguably the most watched issue. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force, and is committed by law to supplying it with weapons. Beijing has ramped up military patrols near Taiwan in recent years. Any signal from Trump on US support for the one-China policy will be closely watched.
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