Towards disentangling human-induced drivers of precipitation trends from naturally occurring ones

Nature, Published online: 06 May 2026; doi:10.1038/d41586-026-01419-6

Combining climate models with statistical learning allows an assessment of the relative contributions of different factors to trends in winter precipitation at mid-latitudes. Thermodynamic (non-circulation-related) effects are mostly consistent between models and observations, but whether circulation-related changes are forced or unforced remains unclear.