The Mandalorian and Grogu on track for a bigger box office opening than Project Hail Mary

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While The Mandalorian and Grogu's Rotten Tomatoes score might not be super high, it is on track to have an impressive box office opening.

According to Deadline, the Star Wars film (the first in seven years) is estimated to meet or surpass the $80 million domestic prediction for its four day weekend opening.

Globally, the film is predicted to net $160 million. That would mean it beats Project Hail Mary's $141 million to become the third biggest opening of the year (tied with China's Pegasus 3, which scored $160 million, per Screen Rant). The biggest opening of the year goes to The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's $372.6 million, with Michael's $217 million in second place.

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The Mandalorian and Grogu's production budget is reportedly $165 million, so it would make back almost all that across its opening weekend (this doesn't include the marketing spend, however).

As for North American presales, the report says they stand at $25 million, which puts it ahead of Project Hail Mary and in line with Avatar: Fire and Ash. Project Hail Mary went on to gross $668.5, while Avatar: Fire and Ash took well over a billion. As for how well The Mandalorian and Grogu does, it all depends on its legs.

In comparison, Solo: A Star Wars Story scored a $148 million opening with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 69%, and finished its box office run with $392.9 million.

The Mandalorian and Grogu currently holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of 60%. Our own 3-star The Mandalorian and Grogu review reads: "As a simple adventure story, The Mandalorian and Grogu is a lot of fun with Baby Yoda's sheer adorableness doing a lot of heavy lifting. Epic action and a pulsating score help bring this story to a cinematic level that feels a real step up from season 3. Yet, with surprisingly low stakes for a Star Wars movie, it all ends up feeling rather inconsequential."

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The film arrives this May 22. In the meantime, check out our guide to all the upcoming Star Wars movies and shows, or see our roundup of how to watch the Star Wars movies in order.

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Molly EdwardsSenior Entertainment Writer

I'm a Senior Entertainment Writer here at GamesRadar+, covering all things film and TV for the site's Total Film section. I previously worked on the Disney magazines team at Immediate Media, and also wrote on the CBeebies, MEGA!, and Star Wars Galaxy titles after graduating with a BA in English.

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