Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX merger would be Musk’s 4th billion-dollar self-deal

Elon Musk is reportedly floating the idea of merging Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX, just weeks before SpaceX’s massive IPO on the Nasdaq. If it happens, this would literally be the fourth time Musk has orchestrated a billion-dollar transaction between companies he controls.

No one in corporate America is doing this at the scale Musk is. Between SolarCity, Twitter/X, and xAI, Musk has built a playbook for self-dealing that is unprecedented — and now he’s gearing up for the biggest one yet.

The latest merger talk

According to CNBC, Musk has discussed with colleagues the possibility of folding Tesla and SpaceX together. The timing is notable: SpaceX filed its S-1 on May 20 and is expected to start trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, targeting a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion and a raise of approximately $75 billion — the largest IPO in history.

Tesla’s market cap currently sits around $1.6 trillion, meaning a combined entity could be worth over $3 trillion. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has put the odds of a merger at “80 to 90 percent” by early 2027. Prediction markets are less bullish — Kalshi traders placed only 33% odds on a merger before May 2027.