Tesla Semi can save over $400K vs diesel, but there are big ‘ifs’

With the Tesla Semi now rolling off the high-volume production line at a qupted price of $290,000 for the 500-mile version, we ran a full total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis against a comparable diesel Class 8 truck. At current diesel prices of $5.35 per gallon, the results are striking.

The Tesla Semi saves fleets between $147,000 and $404,000 over 5 to 10 years of ownership — but those savings hinge almost entirely on what operators pay for electricity and the price of diesel, which is spiking right now.

The TCO breakdown

To build our model, we compared the Tesla Semi Long Range at $290,000 plus a $60,000 depot charger installation against a new Freightliner Cascadia at $165,000 — though that diesel truck price is already climbing toward $238,000 due to tariffs.

We used 100,000 miles per year, which is the long-haul average according to the Department of Energy. For the Tesla Semi, we used the official 1.7 kWh per mile energy consumption, though real-world fleet tests have shown efficiency as good as 1.55 kWh per mile. For diesel, we used 8.0 MPG — the real-world average for a new Freightliner Cascadia, which gets 7.7-8.9 MPG depending on conditions.