Hormuz Strait Remains Largely Sealed Despite Trump's Iran Ceasefire Extension

Hormuz Strait Remains Largely Sealed Despite Trump's Iran Ceasefire Extension

The Strait of Hormuz saw minimal vessel movement on Wednesday, marking the first day following President Donald Trump's unilateral decision to prolong the ceasefire agreement with Iran. Despite the truce extension, the critical waterway has not reopened for normal commercial operations.

Iran continues to restrict maritime passage through the strategic sea corridor while simultaneously facing a U.S.-imposed blockade on its ports and vessels. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament, declared that "reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible" while Washington maintains its embargo on Tehran.

Minimal Traffic Amid Ongoing Tensions

Tracking data from LSEG revealed that merely eight vessels, including three oil tankers, transited the strait on Wednesday. The Iranian tanker Atlantis II managed to cross into the Gulf of Oman despite the U.S. blockade. Additionally, a large crude carrier designated Virgo—capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels—entered the Persian Gulf, though its intended destination remained unclear.

These figures represent a negligible increase from Tuesday, when at least six ships made the crossing, and a dramatic decline from Monday's approximately dozen vessels. Current traffic levels stand at a fraction of prewar operations, when more than 100 ships daily traversed the strait.

Security Threats Persist

The waterway remains fraught with danger. Iran's Revolutionary Guard reported on Wednesday that it had apprehended two container ships attempting passage "without authorization," according to state news agency Tasnim.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre warned vessels of "high levels of activity" and urged them to report any suspicious incidents. A cargo vessel came under fire on Wednesday and subsequently halted, while the UKMTO documented a separate incident in which a Guard gunboat damaged the bridge of a container ship on Tuesday.

Weekend Escalation and Broader Impact

Recent days have witnessed escalating confrontations. Iranian forces fired upon a tanker and cargo ship on Saturday—paradoxically, one day after Tehran declared the sea lane open to commerce. Both vessels were reportedly Indian-flagged, prompting New Delhi to lodge a formal complaint.

The U.S. Navy responded on Sunday by firing on an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, subsequently boarding and seizing the ship. Trump characterized the vessel as attempting to circumvent America's blockade of Iran.

These incidents follow Iran's pre-ceasefire attacks on oil tankers, which precipitated what industry analysts have termed the largest oil supply disruption in history. Prior to the conflict, the strait facilitated the transit of approximately 20% of global crude supplies.

Energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that oil flows will require until July to recover to 90% of prewar levels, with an additional two months needed for crude to reach refineries worldwide for processing.