Spain blocks access to Polymarket and Kalshi as it launches gambling licence investigation

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Prediction sites, which allow bets on all topics from weather to politics, may be in breach of country’s rules

Spain’s ministry of consumer rights has blocked access to Polymarket and Kalshi while it investigates whether the leading prediction market sites are violating Spanish law by operating without a gambling licence.

On Tuesday the ministry said it had launched disciplinary proceedings against the two platforms, which allow users to bet on everything from the weather to political events, amid allegations that they lacked the “necessary administrative authorisation” to operate in Spain.

The two sites would be blocked domestically until the investigation was concluded, it said in a statement, which added: “The process of reaching a final decision is expected to take between three and four months.”

The move by Spanish regulators is the latest point of friction between prediction market sites and gambling watchdogs across Europe. In recent years as prediction marketshave swelled into a multibillion-dollar industry and faced accusations of immorality and insider trading, half a dozen countries across Europe have blocked or limited access to Polymarket, including France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Romania, citing concerns over unlicensed gambling.

Spanish officials cast their decision in a similar vein. “In Spain, in line with other European jurisdictions, prediction markets are considered gambling when bets are placed on uncertain future outcomes,” the ministry said. “Therefore, operating them in Spain requires obtaining a specific administrative licence.”

To obtain this licence, operators would have to comply with a series of safeguards, such as identity verification systems and mechanisms to bar access by children as well as people who have self-excluded or who are banned from gambling, it added.

The ministry said it had attempted to notify Polymarket and Kalshi before blocking the US-based companies but its efforts had “proved unsuccessful”. Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi responded to a request for comment from the Guardian.

Scrutiny has steadily mounted over these sites, particularly Polymarket after it emerged that some users had placed substantial bets before the US-Israeli war in Iran and the US’s military action in Venezuela.

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