Ryanair’s Global Emissions Are Now 50% Higher Than In 2019, The Largest Increase Worldwide
May 8, 202651 minutes
Transport & Environment (T&E)
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Aviation is the only polluting sector escaping carbon pricing in Europe, with two-thirds of its CO2 emissions not covered by the ETS.
Europe’s aviation sector’s 2025 emissions highest ever
New analysis by T&E reveals that in 2025, emissions from flights departing from airports in Europe surpassed pre-pandemic levels for the first time. The sector emitted 195 Mt of CO₂ for flights departing Europe in 2025, a 2% increase compared to pre-COVID levels.
Low-cost carriers drove European emissions growth. Ryanair ‘s global emissions are now 50% higher than in 2019, the largest increase of any of the top 20 most polluting airlines worldwide. Ryanair remains the most polluting airline in Europe, emitting 16.6 Mt of CO₂ from flights departing Europe, roughly equivalent to the total annual CO₂ emissions of a country the size of Croatia. By contrast, legacy carriers with large long-haul networks have recovered more slowly: their emissions overall remain below their pre-pandemic levels, held back by the slower rebound of intercontinental traffic.
Aviation remains the EU’s fastest-growing source of emissions. Across the EU, entire sectors of the economy like agriculture, manufacturing, and most transport modes have cut their greenhouse gases (GHG). But the aviation sector is moving in the opposite direction: since 2005, European aviation emissions have risen by more than 30%. Flights departing from Europe accounted for 23% of global aviation emissions, making it the third-largest emitting region after Asia (31%) and North America (25%). Despite its smaller share compared to the first two markets, Europe is the only region in the top 3 which has recovered from its pre-pandemic emissions levels.
Two thirds of aviation emissions escape carbon pricing
European aviation emissions have returned to pre-pandemic levels, yet the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) leaves two-thirds of this pollution unpriced.
The EU ETS makes airlines pay for their pollution. However, the EU’s carbon market is structurally flawed, as it currently only includes intra European short-haul routes, leaving legacy airlines’ long-haul flights, the most polluting kind of flights, outside of its scope. As a result, an airline like Ryanair, whose network is concentrated within Europe, pays an average of 50 euros for its tonne of carbon, whereas airlines like Lufthansa pays just 20 euros. Airlines that operate predominantly extra-European routes like the Gulf carrier Emirates pay close to zero under European carbon markets.
In addition, the top 10 most polluting intercontinental routes departing from European airports including London-New York and Frankfurt-Shanghai, escape carbon pricing. The top polluting London-New York route alone generated nearly 1.4 Mt of CO₂ in 2025: the same as the top 10 most polluting intra-EU departing routes combined, and roughly equivalent to the annual emissions from all combustion cars in a city the size of Munich.
As soon as a plane leaves the European Economic Area (EEA), the EU effectively loses the ability to apply carbon pricing to that flight’s emissions. These are instead offset under CORSIA, a much weaker environmental offsetting scheme than Europe’s carbon market.
Extending the carbon market to all departing flights would not only close this loophole, it would also unlock significant public revenue to accelerate aviation’s green transition. In 2025, the carbon market generated €4.1 billion for Member States. With a full scope extension, that figure could rise to nearly €17 billion a year by 2030. T&E recommends directing a share of these revenues towards scaling up sustainable aviation fuel production and funding contrail avoidance, measures that would deliver immediate climate benefits while building the industrial capacity Europe needs for zero-emission aviation.
“Aviation emissions hitting new emissions high is a clear signal that the industry has no intention of cleaning up its act. The sector’s irresponsible growth comes with enormous climate and environmental costs, yet airlines avoided over €8.5 billion in emissions costs in 2025 alone due to structural loopholes.” Giacomo Miele, lead author and analyst of the analysis, said. “By extending the EU ETS to all departing flights, Europe could capture billions in annual revenue to subsidise the transition to green aviation fuels. It is time to stop subsidizing fossil fuel dependency and start investing in the future of a sustainable aviation sector,” he concludes.
Industry pressure to weaken or scrap the carbon market has been intensifying, particularly in the light of the recent crisis in Iran. Yet, T&E finds that the carbon market is not responsible for the dramatic increases in ticket prices – instead, it is aviation’s reliance on fossil fuels. Indeed, T&E analysis shows that for long-haul flights, the current geopolitical oil shock is adding around €90 per passenger to fuel costs, the SAF mandate adds around €3, and the ETS costs don’t apply to long-haul flights. On short-haul flights, fossil fuel volatility adds around €30 to fuel costs, while climate policies add less than €10. Ticket prices are rising because of Europe’s reliance on fossil fuels, not because of the climate measures intended to steer the sector away from them, T&E states.
Article from T&E.
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