Moscow Moves to Cut Kazakhstan Oil Supplies to Berlin's Critical Refinery Starting May 2026

Russia to halt Kazakh crude transit via Druzhba pipeline, threatening Germany's energy stability

Russia has announced plans to prohibit the transit of Kazakhstani oil through the Druzhba pipeline across its territory beginning May 1, 2026, a decision that could significantly impact the PCK refinery in Schwedt—a facility located approximately 100 kilometers north of Berlin that provides over 90 percent of the region's diesel, petrol, and heating oil.

The development was confirmed to Deutsche Welle by Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, which revealed that Rosneft Germany, acting under directives from Russia's Energy Ministry, has notified authorities of the impending restriction.

Details of the Supply Disruption

The PCK refinery, which fell under German government control following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has increasingly relied on Kazakhstani crude transported through Russian territory since 2022. According to ministry statements, approximately 17 percent of the refinery's nearly 12 million metric tons of annual oil processing capacity depends on deliveries via this pipeline.

Reuters initially broke the story on Tuesday, April 21, citing multiple industry sources. The German government emphasized that Russia has not yet formally communicated this decision through diplomatic channels, and that Rosneft Germany is currently evaluating the operational implications.

Energy Security Assessment

German officials have indicated that while the loss of Kazakhstani oil flows would necessitate reduced refinery operations, it would not fundamentally compromise Germany's overall petroleum product security. The ministry noted that since 2022, the refinery has diversified its supply sources, importing oil from ports in Rostock and Poland rather than exclusively through the Druzhba pipeline.

"The cessation of Kazakh oil deliveries to the PCK refinery does not ultimately jeopardize the security of supply of petroleum products in Germany, even though PCK Schwedt would have to operate at a reduced capacity," a Federal Ministry spokesperson stated.

Broader Context: Energy Crisis and European Dependency

The announcement arrives amid an unprecedented global energy crisis. The conflict in Iran and the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly constrained oil flows to Europe and Asia, driving prices upward. Jet fuel and kerosene—critical PCK refinery products—face particularly acute shortages, forcing airlines like Lufthansa to reduce flight schedules substantially, with the carrier cutting 20,000 flights from its May through October calendar this week.

This latest Russian action reflects Moscow's pattern of weaponizing energy exports since its 2022 invasion. Over the past three years, the European Union has substantially reduced its energy dependence on Russia: natural gas imports fell from 45 percent in 2022 to 12 percent by 2025, while oil imports declined from 27 percent to just 2 percent. The REPowerEU Regulation aims to eliminate all Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

Expert Analysis and Policy Implications

Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the Kyiv School of Economics, warned that Russia maintains the capacity to threaten European energy security as long as imports continue.

"This news illustrates, once again, that Russia will retain the ability to threaten European energy security until all imports from and through Russia have stopped. Germany, and the EU, should complete the exit from Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible, with no further delays to the REPowerEU agenda," Hilgenstock told DW.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly instructed his government to "explore the feasibility" of blocking European energy supplies. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has since criticized EU sanctions policies despite the Middle Eastern crisis.

Alternative Explanations and Refinery Resilience

Kazakhstan's Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov suggested that technical difficulties resulting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure may also contribute to the supply disruption.

Since January 2023, when Kazakhstan initiated crude shipments to Schwedt following years of near-exclusive reliance on Russian oil, the refinery has demonstrated capacity to adapt to supply changes. Its successful diversification away from Russian sources since 2022 positions it relatively well to manage an extended Druzhba disruption.

Unresolved Regulatory Questions

Complicating the outlook, the PCK refinery remains technically owned by Russia but operates under German state management. Although currently exempted from U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft, that exemption was set to expire April 29 before the German government secured an extension in March without specifying a completion date. Germany has intensively lobbied Washington to maintain the refinery's operational status due to its strategic significance.