Rising Cuba-US tensions amid talk of drones, emergency plans

"This is a joke. If we’re living hand-to-mouth, how can we save food for the war?" wrote a Cuban social media user after the publication of an official guide with recommendations on how to prepare for a potential military attack by the United States.

This and other outraged messages reflect the confusion and unease felt by many Cubans following the guidelines released in recent days by Cuba’s Civil Defense, amid growing tension between Havana and Washington.

The "Family Guide for the Protection of the Population in the Event of Military Aggression" recommends packing a backpack with personal documents, a radio, a flashlight, matches, candles, a first-aid kit, food for three days, drinking water, personal hygiene items as well as medications for chronic illnesses. It also suggests identifying shelters that can be used in the event of an airstrike.

The publication of the guidelines comes at one of the most tense moments in decades for the already strained Cuban-US relations. In recent weeks, US president Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted at taking action against Cuba, going so far as to say that "Cuba is next."

Drones for Cuba?

Tensions escalated further after the US media outlet Axios quoted intelligence sources as saying that Cuba had acquired more than 300 military drones and was evaluating possible scenarios for their use near the US base at Guantanamo.

However, analyst Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, said that the limited number of drones would not pose a significant threat. "In military and strategic terms, 300 drones are nothing compared to the capacity of the United States," Correa-Cabrera, a professor of Politics and Government at George Mason University in Virginia, told DW. "The asymmetries are enormous."

The expert believes that the current situation must be viewed in a broader geopolitical context, marked by tensions between Washington and other global powers such as Russia and China.

"Cuba’s geographical location, beyond its symbolic significance, is fundamental for any country that seeks to control the Western Hemisphere," she explains.

According to Correa-Cabrera, it is not only the drones that are a cause for concern, but also Havana’s potential strategic alliances with countries hostile to the United States and the role that new forms of "irregular warfare" could play.

"We are not talking about a war between Cuba and the United States, but rather a global conflict involving other nations," she explained.

Cubans bear brunt of humanitarian crisis

Moreover, in a country plagued by power outages, food and health care shortages, and record levels of migration in recent years, some observers believe that the greatest risk to Washington may not come from military action.

"The most significant impact could be psychological or political, rather than strictly military," says Juan Battaleme, a senior fellow at the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI), in an interview with DW.

"A potential humanitarian crisis would likely be far more sensitive for the United States than the military dimension of the conflict," he argues.

He added that if unrest triggered mass migration, images of Cubans fleeing by sea or seeking humanitarian aid in Guantanamo would come at "an enormous political cost for Washington."

According to Battaleme, the United States seeks to avoid a region-wide breakdown. "Washington needs any transition in Cuba to be orderly and not create a major problem or regional instability," he says. "Cuba today resembles Venezuela in recent years: an extremely vulnerable country that is partly sustained by external support." 

Despite the harsh rhetoric and growing diplomatic tensions, the international relations expert believes the stand-off between the two nations is still a long way off from becoming a direct confrontation. “The situation continues to unfold more on the political front than on the military one," Battaleme concludes.

Cuba's grid falters again, triggering blackouts and unrest

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This article was translated from Spanish.