Prediction markets are ditching the 'casino' label to become a regular part of how people track the news
A new report from Bitget and Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are evolving into a $240 billion industry driven by retail users who are trading more frequently on everything from crypto to politics.
By Helene Braun, AI Boost|Edited by Sheldon Reback May 2, 2026, 1:00 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on
What to know:
- Prediction markets are shifting from occasional, event-driven bets to continuous platforms built around frequent, smaller trades by retail users.
- Polymarket’s monthly trading volume has surged from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, with active wallets more than tripling in six months.
- As crypto-focused users branch into markets tied to real-world events, prediction prices are increasingly used alongside traditional data to track expectations on economics, politics and culture.
Prediction markets are shifting from one-off bets tied to major events into platforms driven by daily user engagement, according to a new report from Bitget Wallet in partnership with Polymarket.
Trading volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, but the report points to a deeper change in behavior. Based on activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, users are returning more often and participating across a wider range of markets, from crypto to sports to politics.
The data suggest growth is being driven by frequency rather than trade size. More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, a sign the market remains dominated by retail participants. Instead of placing large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller trades more regularly.
“Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's chief operating officer. “What we're seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.”
Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural starting place. But as users become more active, participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events.
The report frames this evolution as a structural change. Prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major occurrences like elections. Instead, they are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”
That shift is also changing how these markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
Growth has accelerated quickly. Monthly trading volume has climbed from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability. Wallets are emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.
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