Opaque nature of US-Iran shadow war: Are they 'dancing their way out of a minefield' toward a deal?
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Issued on: 04/05/2026 - 22:49
11:48 min Share From the show
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François Picard welcomes Peter Apps, Global Defence Commentator, who writes a bi-weekly column for Reuters on national security, conflict, international affairs, and technology. Rather than casting the current state of US–Iran tensions as a binary shift between war and peace, Apps outlines a more fluid and volatile reality, where ceasefire and escalation unfold simultaneously: “both (conflict and negotiations) will keep running.” At the heart of this crisis, the Strait of Hormuz emerges not only as a critical chokepoint for trade and global shipping, but as a battleground of narratives and perception, where “both sides are trying to make it as opaque as possible.”
Control, in this sense, extends beyond military power to the shaping of narrative and risk. Apps also underscores China’s growing diplomatic weight, positioning Beijing as a potential arbiter, though not a neutral one. Any effort to restore stability to maritime trade routes, he suggests, may come at a strategic cost, with Taiwan looming as a central bargaining chip: “they’ll want something in return. And what they want in return may very well be the US backing off on Taiwan.”
Our guest further highlights the increasingly assertive posture of the UAE, which he describes as “the most individualistic” among regional powers, pursuing its own strategic course while navigating a dense and often uneasy web of alliances.Ultimately, Apps portrays a volatile mix of deterrence, signaling, and negotiation. As he puts it, the region is “dancing out of this minefield towards some kind of deal”: a fragile process where any missteps could quickly spiral out of control from choreographed chaos into full-fledged escalation.
By:
François PICARD
Ilayda HABIP
Video by:
François PICARD
Ilayda HABIP
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