Oil flows through Strait of Hormuz won’t return to normal until next year even if war ended tomorrow, warns energy boss

Full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to resume before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the current Middle East conflict were to end immediately, the chief of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm has warned.

Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, said it would take “at least four months to get back to 80% of ​pre-conflict ⁠flows” even if the conflict ended tomorrow, while full flows would not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.

His stark assessment, delivered at an Atlantic Council event on Wednesday, represents one of the most pessimistic outlooks from top industry executives amid stalling efforts on both sides to secure a peace agreement.

The International Energy Agency has labelled the situation the "largest ever energy crisis" due to the near-closure of the strait, a vital chokepoint through which approximately a fifth of the world's oil supply passes. Iran has established de facto control over the waterway, leading to a surge in energy prices, heightened inflation, and growing fears of a global economic downturn.

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Mr Al Jaber’s concerns echo those of Amin Nasser, chief executive of neighbouring Saudi Arabia's oil giant Aramco, who previously cautioned that the oil market might not recover until 2027 if the situation persists through mid-June.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Iran is solidifying its control over the strait through checkpoints, vetting procedures, and sometimes imposing fees. Tehran began attacking vessels in the strait to impose a de facto blockade after the ⁠US-Israeli assault against Iran began on 28 February.

Since then, Iran has broadened its definition of the waterway to encompass the UAE's Gulf of Oman coastline, just outside the strait. This area has become a crucial lifeline for the UAE, with a crude pipeline terminating at the port of Fujairah on that coastline, enabling some Emirati crude to reach international markets.

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Mr Al Jaber emphasised the wider implications beyond economics. "This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished," he said.

"If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences."

The ADNOC chief highlighted the conflict's exposure of supply chain fragility, noting a 30 per cent rise in fuel prices, a 50 per cent increase in fertiliser costs, and airfares climbing by a quarter. He urged renewed investment to bolster global energy resilience.

He said: "Every farm, every factory, every family is paying the price, and the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load."

Mr Al Jaber also pointed out that "just over 80 days into this conflict, almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their own economies."

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