‘Not decoupling’: what US-China trade data signals ahead of Xi-Trump summit

Advertisement2026 Xi-Trump summitEconomyGlobal Economy‘Not decoupling’: what US-China trade data signals ahead of Xi-Trump summit

Declining trade flows come as Trump heads to Beijing – but analyst says US remains dependent on some Chinese goods

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Karen Tianin BeijingPublished: 7:00pm, 9 May 2026China’s trade with the United States has declined this year, official data shows, as US President Donald Trump heads to Beijing next week for a high-stakes visit that could determine the future of economic relations between the two superpowers.

China’s merchandise exports to the US fell 10.2 per cent year on year to US$133.4 billion in the first four months of 2026, according to data released on Saturday by the General Administration of Customs. Imports from the US also declined 10.9 per cent to US$45.8 billion over the same period, bringing the bilateral trade surplus to a cumulative US$87.7 billion for the year so far.

AdvertisementThe data was released just days before Trump’s scheduled arrival in Beijing on May 14 for a crucial summit widely expected to focus on trade disputes, export controls, the Iran war and other sources of friction. China posted better-than-expected trade growth in April, with the total value of outbound shipments hitting a monthly record

In line with that, shipments to the US climbed 11.3 per cent year on year to US$36.8 billion last month, bucking the trend from January to March. Imports from the US also increased 9 per cent to US$13.7 billion, bringing China’s bilateral trade surplus to US$23.1 billion for April, up from US$16.8 billion the previous month.

The US-China trade deficit has been a major point of contention between the world’s two largest economies since Trump’s first term, when his administration launched the first trade war.

But recent US Commerce Department data showed that mainland China had fallen to the fourth-largest contributor to the US goods trade deficit after Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico – its lowest ranking since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001.

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“Supply chains are diversifying, not decoupling,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. “The US remains reliant on Chinese intermediate inputs in electronics, auto parts and critical minerals,” she added, noting that some of these goods were transhipped to the US from third markets.

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