Montenegro at 20: EU ambitions and Serbian ties

On May 21, Montenegro will mark two decades since the historic referendum that paved the way for its secession from its state union with Serbia.

The anniversary celebrations will take place in an atmosphere shaped by the country's reputation as the Western Balkans' "high achiever" in the EU accession process.

Over the past few years, Podgorica has managed to kick-start its stalled EU accession talks, speed up reforms and position itself as the frontrunner in the region to join the EU at a time when Brussels has renewed its interest in bringing new members into the bloc.

"It's easy to be the star pupil in a classroom of bad students," Daliborka Uljarevic of the Centre for Civic Education in Podgorica told DW.

Her remark reflects the broader regional context. While much of the Western Balkans has stagnated, or even regressed, on the path toward the European Union, Montenegro has managed to capitalize on the geopolitical momentum created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the EU's renewed focus on enlargement.

Referendum on independence

Montenegro declared independence from Serbia in 2006 after a tightly contested, high-turnout referendum in which 55.5% of voters backed leaving the union with Serbia.

For the next 14 years, the country was ruled by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) led by longtime strongman Milo Djukanovic.

Over the years, Djukanovic's government faced repeated accusations of corruption and links between political elites and organized crime, while critics increasingly described Montenegro as a "captured state."

The DPS eventually lost power in 2020 after months of mass protests and church-led rallies against a controversial religious property law, in what became the first democratic transfer of power since independence.

"Montenegro is one of the rare countries in the region that had enough democratic capacity to replace a man who had been in power for so long without major upheaval," said Aleksandar Popov of the Center for Regionalism in Novi Sad, Serbia. "If we look at Serbia, that will be much harder to achieve," he told DW.

Divisions over identity

Montenegro's political scene is still marked by a pro-sovereignty/pro-Serbian divide that has shaped the country since independence.

One side emphasizes a distinct Montenegrin national identity and statehood, while the other sees Montenegrins as part of the broader Serbian national body and favors close political, cultural and religious ties with the country's northeastern neighbor.

According to the latest census from 2023, around 41% of citizens identify as Montenegrins and about 33% as Serbs — a balance that strongly shapes elections and coalition politics.

Pro-Serbian parties are among the key political actors in the country and are widely seen as the main channel through which Belgrade maintains influence in Montenegro's domestic affairs.

Officially, these two political camps have reached a consensus on Montenegro's goal of joining the EU.

Unofficially, says Aleksandar Popov, that balance remains fragile and vulnerable to influence from Belgrade.

"Pro-Serbian forces […] can always obstruct the European path on a signal from Belgrade — and this is already happening," said Popov.

'We loved you more than you loved us'

Relations with Serbia have therefore remained one of the most sensitive political issues for Podgorica.

This was clearly illustrated by the reaction of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to an invitation to attend Montenegro's independence anniversary celebrations.

Vucic began by saying that attending the celebration would be like "spitting in the face of himself and his people."

He later addressed Montenegrin citizens directly in an opinion piece: "You did not bother us. We saw you as sisters and brothers and wanted to live in the same state with you. I admit, we are guilty — forgive us for loving you more than you loved us," wrote Vucic.

How Belgrade views Montenegro

Both Uljarevic and Popov believe official Belgrade has never fully accepted Montenegrin independence. According to Uljarevic, Serbia still behaves toward Montenegro "as if it were a temporarily lost territory."

Popov believes that for this reason, Belgrade will continue doing everything it can to slow down Montenegro's progress along the path to the EU.

"Serbia does not want Montenegro to join the EU because it would undermine Vucic's main argument that 'Europe doesn't want us.' If Montenegro enters the union, it will become clear that the real problem lies elsewhere," Popov told DW.

He argues that EU membership would also place Montenegro beyond Belgrade's reach — politically, legally and in terms of security — and remove it from Serbia's sphere of pressure and influence.

The same old problems

Nevertheless, Uljarevic warns that beyond Montenegro's positive image as a regional success story are many of the same problems that have dogged Montenegro since independence.

"Corruption is still everywhere," said Uljarevic. "Some would even say it is more expensive now than before, because there are many more actors in power trying to satisfy their party and particular interests," she said.

At the same time, she believes Montenegro should use the current momentum of EU integration as an opportunity for deeper institutional and social change, rather than merely as a geopolitical shortcut into the bloc.

"Our absolute interest is to become an EU member state as soon as possible, but it is equally important that the process is carried out properly, and that we do not enter the union as a defective state," she said.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan