Mini-crises sparked by the Iran war may add up to a big collapse
From energy, inflation and trade to slowing global growth and investment uncertainty, these mini-crises have the makings of a massive crisis
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Not a sudden, major crash but a series of mini-crises. That, according to some, is the prospect facing the global economy and financial system in the wake of conflict in the Middle East. But what if these mini-crises cascade into a collective collapse?
And what if the Trump administration emerges as the only winner in the conflict by virtue of the fact that it has, in engineering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, locked Europe and Asia into a desperate dependence on US oil and gas, especially now that the United Arab Emirates has announced its exit from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec)?Or what if beyond its aggressive actions in the Middle East, the United States under President Donald Trump is also forcing Europe and Asia to shoulder the financial burden of their self-defence, thus allowing the US to emerge as the only real winner economically in a war that it, together with Israel, began?
AdvertisementExperts from various disciplines – economic, financial and geopolitical – seem unable to put it all together or to acknowledge the risk of a generalised crisis. Instead, they seem to have fixated on the idea of systemic resilience.
“The world economy has shown itself capable of shaking off significant shocks like broad US tariffs, so there is room for optimism that it will prove resilient to the fallout of the war on Iran,” Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University, has been reported as saying, for instance.
AdvertisementSuch views or sketches do not capture the full picture, however. They describe single economic and financial blows that cause a victim to stumble in his stride but not collectively to provoke a fall – something which could be in prospect now.
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