Libya oscillates between cooperation and illusion

Soldiers from around 30 nations are training to fight terrorism, practicing international cooperation and seeking to strengthen the region's fragile stability in Flintlock, a joint military exercise under US leadership. The training takes place in Libya and Ivory Coast through the end of April.

For Libya, which has been split into east and west administrations following years of civil war, it is particularly significant that representatives from both parts of the country are participating in the exercise for the first time.

'Visible rapprochement'

"All things considered, this is a truly remarkable political signal," Hager Ali, a political scientist at the German think tank GIGA Institute in Hamburg, told DW. Flintlock is part of an established US-led military exercise format; however, the location and participants make a difference this time, she said.

"The fact that the exercise is taking place in Libya for the first time and that both rival camps are represented is certainly a special feature," she added, noting that it is evidently part of the longer-term efforts to reunite the armed forces that have been fragmented since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011.

Michael Bauer, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) office in Tunis, agrees. "The publicly staged handshake between the two rival camps represents a rare, visible sign of rapprochement," he said. This demonstrates that cooperation is possible, at least at the operational level — albeit still under external mediation, particularly by the US, he told DW.

Dysfunctional state

This cautious rapprochement under American pressure involves a country that still barely functions as a state. "The country lacks a unified, functional government structure with a clear delineation between the executive, legislative and judicial branches," the recently published Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2026 states.

In other words, political and economic power is divided between rival governments, armed groups and other regional actors, resulting in a fragmented political environment that hinders the establishment of effective democratic rule.

Libya has been divided since 2014 between two rival governments. In the west, the UN-recognized Government of National Unity in Tripoli. In the east, the Government of National Stability in Tobruk is backed by General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army.

Against this backdrop, any form of cooperation is remarkable — and the military exercise is not the only example. Recently, for the first time in many years, a joint national budget was adopted. North Africa expert Bauer views this as a "tangible sign of institutional rapprochement," but warns against unrealistic expectations.

Hager Ali, too, considers this to be only one possible step in a longer process. "The joint budget could help rebalance economic power structures — particularly vis-à-vis influential actors such as General Khalifa Haftar, who rules the eastern part of the country and whose network is deeply embedded in Libya's economic structures," she said, adding that at least, it represents an attempt to centralize political and economic leverage more strongly.

Other factors at play

Both analysts emphasize that the motives behind theUS-led military exercise extend far beyond Libya. The focus is on counterterrorism across the entire Sahel region, the increasing spread of weapons there — for example as a result of the war in Sudan — and efforts to push back Russian influence. Hager Ali points in particular to Moscow's presence in eastern Libya, noting that "the US in particular is clearly seeking to counter this more strongly." 

Libya is increasingly become a stage for international strategic competition due to its geographical location in North Africa and oil resources.

"Libya's oil production, stable for now under informal arrangements but structurally fragile, matters more than usual," the Washington-based think tank Middle East Institute (MEI) recently stated. 

This could present an opportunity for Libya, however, domestic political dynamics remain unpredictable, and key questions regarding the distribution of power and resources continue to be disputed among rival centers of power. "Succession in Libya is unlikely to be resolved solely through formal legal mechanisms," the MEI analysis says. Isolated signs of cooperation are unlikely to make much of a difference in addressing this structural problem.

Economic tensions

"Libya's current fiscal path is unsustainable. Persistently large fiscal deficits are intensifying pressures on the exchange rate, international reserves and inflation," the International Monetary Fund assessed in a recent study. High public spending, inflation, and currency pressures are placing pressure on the population and exacerbating social tensions. Reforms have long been considered urgently necessary but remain politically difficult to implement.

Despite the recent signs of cooperation, North Africa analyst Michael Bauer sees likttle chance in the near future of substantial progress between the conflicting parties and their leaders. "The division gives them access to resources and ensures their influence," he told DW. "The tentative attempts at cooperation have so far been little more than collaboration deemed useful by both sides," the Libya expert added.

For Libyans, this means that cooperation on military exercises and the national budget could indeed be a first step. However, as long as the key political actors continue to profit from Libya's division and maintain their power structures, a strong and united Libya is likely to remain an illusion.

This article was first published in German.