It’s Officially Election Season in Trumpworld

Trumpworld is now turning its attention to the next set of primaries that could have a big impact on November’s midterm elections. So today it’s all eyes on the upcoming primary races Republican strategists tell me are next on the priority list for the White House: Texas, California, and Maine.

Showdown in Texas

President Donald Trump made a last-minute endorsement on Tuesday in the Senate primary runoff in Texas, throwing his support behind attorney general Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn. Trump’s political strategists are already getting ready for any fallout.

The primary is on May 26 and the president’s decision to make an endorsement just a week beforehand caught some of his own aides by surprise, sources familiar with the dynamics inside the White House told WIRED. But on Truth Social, Trump said he was backing Paxton because the candidate has “gone through a lot.”

Indeed Paxton has. In 2023, he faced impeachment charges; he took a plea deal in 2024 and paid roughly $300,000 in restitution—without admitting guilt—to avoid a felony securities fraud trial. And in 2025, he was accused of adultery by his wife, who filed for divorce on “biblical grounds.” He also faced a yearslong federal grand jury investigation into his alleged misuse of office, which the DOJ closed without charges in the last weeks of Joe Biden's presidency.

Paxton’s baggage means that should he defeat Cornyn, as many in Washington now expect following Trump’s endorsement, it will come with consequences for Republicans later in the midterms, and for the White House as it deals with Congress.

Chief among the concerns is whether Paxton’s history and his framing as the MAGA candidate might be too objectionable to voters in the general election in November, making Democrats more energized because they see Paxton as easier to beat than Cornyn.

As a result, if the Democratic candidate James Talarico can emulate Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and post big fundraising numbers from small-dollar donors, Republicans would need to respond by spending more themselves—money that could have been used for vulnerable Republicans in other races.

Meanwhile, the White House will now have to focus on whether Trump’s endorsement will upend dynamics in the Senate for the next six months until the midterms, two longtime Republican campaign strategists told WIRED.

Senator Bill Cassidy, apparently furious with Trump after losing his primary in Louisiana last week, has already started making clear his opposition to the president’s legislative priorities. The fear is that Cornyn may soon feel the same way.

“It is short-sighted thinking,” says one Republican strategist who worked on the Trump 2024 campaign and spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Cornyn has been a reliable vote on big issues and now Trump risks battles in the Senate.”

The problem with the slim 53-47 Senate majority is that it would only take two disaffected Republicans, in addition to Cassidy and Cornyn, to vote with Democrats to block Trump from using congressional funds to pay for his ballroom or further military action in Iran.

Finally, Trumpworld is watching the possible fallout inside Trump’s orbit if Paxton wins.

Trump’s 2024 campaign co-chief Chris LaCivita and 2024 pollster Tony Fabrizio both work on Cornyn’s campaign. Within minutes of Trump’s Paxton endorsement, LaCivita’s longtime nemesis Corey Lewandowski posted on X declaring the Cornyn campaign to be dead.

The White House declined to comment on the races they were following, and referred WIRED to the president's Paxton endorsement.

Curiosity in California

As the White House tracks the final week of campaigning in Texas, some campaign strategists in Trumpworld tell WIRED that they are also keeping an eye on what happens in the primary for the California gubernatorial race set for June 2.

The interest in the race has been mostly academic, because they expect the seat to remain solidly Democratic. But California uses a primary system where the two top candidates—regardless of their party—will advance to the general election in November.

Trump’s strategists are looking to see whether the fragmented Democratic field, which has no candidate endorsed by the current governor Gavin Newsom or former vice president Kamala Harris, might allow Republican Steve Hilton to advance to the general election.

“Maybe Steve Hilton can pull it off because he’s a moderate and the Dems are all duds,” says one Trump 2024 strategist.

The frontrunner Democrats have weathered torrid campaigns. President Joe Biden’s former Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra had to disavow prior praise for the Church of Scientology, former congresswoman Katie Porter was caught on camera berating an aide to “Get out of my fucking shot!” during a taped meeting, and billionaire Tom Steyer paid for campaign boosts from influencers who did not properly disclose they were paid.

Senate Majority in Maine

Two Republican campaign strategists tell WIRED that they are also looking at the Democratic primary for senate in Maine because of the potential implications for the Senate majority. The primary is scheduled for June 9.

Their expectation is that Graham Platner will almost certainly win the Democratic primary to face incumbent senator Susan Collins, whose seat the GOP will likely need to retain for Republicans to keep the majority. While Platner’s margin of victory won’t really provide insight into how he performs in the general election since his opponent, governor Janet Mills, dropped out, Trumpworld will closely be tracking the results anyways, the strategists say.

This is an edition of Hugo Lowell’s Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.