‘It’s Andy or bust’: could Burnham’s return to parliament save Starmer?

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Labour MPs are reportedly urging colleagues to demand Burnham’s return in order to position him as Starmer’s eventual successor

If Keir Starmer is looking for a saviour to keep him in No 10 after the May elections and the scandal of the Mandelson saga, there is an unlikely figure in the north-west who might help him – temporarily.

It has been the week where the prime minister seemed at his most isolated. But Labour MPs told the Guardian they were urging colleagues not to depose Starmer next month, and were instead preparing to demand that Andy Burnham return to parliament in order to succeed him before the next general election.

Burnham had a busy day on Thursday, in the week that Starmer was at war with Whitehall over the failed vetting of Peter Mandelson. The mayor of Greater Manchester was campaigning in the local elections in five London boroughs – Haringey, Islington, Southwark, Lewisham and Bromley.

Having once been viewed suspiciously by some in the 2024 intake as aloof and dismissive of those who had won seats in the south, Burnham has been making efforts to build bridges.

Now many Labour MPs say they are willing to back Starmer in the event of a challenge to his leadership to give time for Burnham to return, having been previously blocked from standing at the Gorton and Denton byelection.

Starmer is likely to be able to count on much of the party’s left bloc to support him, in order to stall the process of replacing him. But support for Burnham has been growing again among the party’s right.

“It’s Andy or bust,” one senior centrist MP said. “Nothing else works. Nobody else can win. Anything before he has a path is too soon.”

Burnham has let it be known to MPs he would still seek to return to parliament at the earliest opportunity and has been speaking to more of the 2024 intake to build alliances, allies said. He was spotted over the weekend meeting the former deputy leadership candidate Angela Rayner, herself a likely potential leadership candidate.

A number of ministers also said they were keen to dissuade angry MPs from moving against Starmer too quickly in order to give Burnham time. “There are various plans circulating, none of them good,” one MP said.

One source said backbenchers were preparing to demand that Starmer allow Burnham to return to parliament as a price for their support in any summer leadership race, which might be triggered by a direct challenge.

“This has changed in the last few months – MPs have coalesced around Burnham in a way they hadn’t before. They also don’t want to do what the Tories did with Boris and have a disorderly transition to another insider. They are willing to drag this out until Burnham gets back.”

Another added: “It has to be Andy – no other potential leader will win an election. But that has created a stasis where no one wants to move.”

A third said: “The focus groups I have seen around Andy are like actual gold dust. People say things like ‘he cares about people like us’. Do you know how rare it is to see that about a politician? We cannot act in anger and just make things worse for ourselves.”

Starmer’s most outspoken critics on the left of the party are also prepared to act to keep the prime minister in place until a return can be sought for Burnham.

“If there is a coup on 8 May that would be catastrophic,” one leftwing MP said. “We won’t back it, because we need to wait for Andy.”

Some, however, worry that dragging things out could damage the party in the long run. “Never underestimate the power of the rules-based order in the Labour party to ensure we always move too late,” said one MP.

Another said: “I am not sure the brand damage would be recoverable from by 2028 in many of the places we need to win.”

Starmer’s allies have been emphasising again to MPs how the public would react to seeing the party launch into a leadership contest in the middle of a potential economic crisis.

One senior backbencher said that a move against Starmer in the context of the Iran war would be political suicide. “All those 2024 intake MPs who think appointing a caretaker PM is a brilliant idea should consider how the country will take it. The country and the Tories will demand a general election immediately, as they didn’t elect anyone but Starmer to be PM.

“This time there won’t be a national Labour swing to help them and they are taking a huge risk by trying to get rid of a democratically elected PM. Politics is about weathering the good and the bad. Deposing a PM at a time of national crisis is bluntly lunatic behaviour.”

Referring to the flaws in various potential rivals, they added: “There’s no point crying about Andy Burnham – he’s literally not eligible. Wes [Streeting] is compromised. Angela [Rayner] has HMRC issues. Ed [Miliband] lost us 2015. Everyone hates Shabana [Mahmood]. Who is going to stand?”

Several others said that they expected Starmer to reject any demands from his critics after next month’s elections.

“He is prepared to do anything to stay in post,” one minister said. “Sack Wes, sack Ed, whatever it takes. This is not a man who people can come to with a list of demands and expect him to just acquiesce. What power do they actually have?”

• Labour
• Andy Burnham
• Keir Starmer
• Labour party leadership
• analysis