ISW: Russia’s strike on Kyiv was Putin’s attempt to erase Victory Day parade humiliation and mask battlefield failures

The massive strike on Kyiv overnight on May 24 was likely an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal perceived humiliation following the May 9 parade in Moscow and ongoing failures on the battlefield.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.

“The Kremlin previously threatened to strike ‘decision-making’ centers in Kyiv City, including with an Oreshnik, if Ukrainian forces conducted strikes against Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, which Ukraine did not do. The Kremlin threatened to use Oreshniks in the days leading up to Victory Day, likely intended to obfuscate Russia’s weakness and its inability to reliably defend large portions of Russia’s airspace from Ukrainian deep rear strikes,” ISW noted.

The Institute’s analysts interpreted the Russian strike on Kyiv as part of Putin’s ongoing efforts “to erase his Victory Day parade humiliation”. ISW added that the attack was intended to demonstrate “strength” widely criticized parade.

“Russia’s strike completely violates the spirit of the three-day Victory Day ceasefire, which Ukraine abided by, and demonstrates Putin’s unfaithfulness to any agreements that do not heavily favor him,” the analysts emphasized.

At the same time, Russian pro-war “Z” bloggers described the strikes as “symbolic” and linked them to Russia’s battlefield failures. They also sharply criticized the May 24 attacks as expensive but militarily ineffective, noting that an Oreshnik strike on Bila Tserkva did not have a clear or militarily significant target.

“Russian forces are performing poorly on the battlefield and failing to make operationally significant advances in their ongoing spring-summer 2026 campaign, as Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack and comprehensively strike Russian mid–range targets and deep in the Russian rear,” the report said.

ISW also noted that Russian forces are increasingly using mass drone strikes, particularly Shahed-type UAVs, to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and improve the effectiveness of missile strikes, despite high interception rates.

Read also: Massive Russian attack on Kyiv on May 24 damages around 300 sites – Zelensky

As reported by Ukrinform, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine overnight on May 24 using drones and air-, sea-, and ground-launched missiles, deploying a total of 690 aerial assets, with Kyiv as the main target.

Head of the Ukrainian Air Force Communications Department Yurii Ihnat said Russia also used an Oreshnik missile targeting the area of Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region, launched from the Kapustin Yar range.

As a result of the attack, around one hundred people were injured across Ukraine, and four were killed.