Investors ‘afraid’ to take position on oil, data chiefs say as tankers face potential Hormuz fees

Global oil markets were volatile on Tuesday, reflecting investor jitters over possible Iranian plans to impose a permanent fee on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz as part of any peace agreement with the U.S.

International Brent crude oil prices ticked higher, while WTI fell, as traders attempted to reconcile fresh U.S. attacks on Iran Tuesday — dubbed "defensive strikes" by Central Command — with President Donald Trump's hints this past weekend that a peace agreement could now be in sight.

The mixed backdrop unfolded amid speculation that Tehran may look to extract fees for vessels passing through the critical shipping lane as part of any lasting resolution to the three-month conflict with the U.S.

"People are afraid to take a position with so much mixed messaging going on about the status of negotiations," said Dave Ernsberger, president, S&P Global Energy.

One possible plan involves Iran and Oman jointly regulating the Strait and charging a so-called "environmental fee", or transit toll, on ships.

"It's an interesting question… as to whether the global markets, market participants, governments are going to be willing to allow for any kind of transit fee or toll in the first place," Ernsberger told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" Tuesday.

"It's the principle of freedom of maritime flow that's really at stake here, and what kind of precedent it sets."

Brent crude — the global price benchmark seen as more sensitive to the supply squeeze in the Middle East — jumped 2.5% on Tuesday, reaching $98.47 per barrel, as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to retaliate against the U.S. strikes.

Details about how such a charge may work remain scant.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told Australia's ABC at a press briefing that "there is no toll" — but said "navigation and the preservation of the ecosystem of the Strait, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will have costs."

About one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil supply passes through the Strait, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.

"People have talked about that being around $1 a barrel for crude oil transit and exiting the Strait," Ernsberger said.

He said that a dollar-a-barrel levy is "not a huge tax on trade" in a world where oil reaches $120 a barrel. "But if we go back to a $55 per barrel market, which is what we had in December, it becomes a much bigger fee to think about."

He said this would, in effect, either add a dollar per barrel to the prices paid in global markets, or producers will have to absorb the fee in their export costs.

Speaking with CNBC's "Europe Early Edition" Tuesday, Amena Bakr, head of Middle East Energy and OPEC+ insights at Kepler, said heightened uncertainty, coupled with the "mixed messages over negotiations", is ramping up volatility in oil prices.

"We don't know what this framework looks like," she said of the possible levy plan.

Even if a deal is reached to reopen the Strait, questions remain over how stable and dependable oil shipments would be.

Ernsberger said that some ships are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz — but traffic is around 10% of normal pre-war levels.

"The reality is that very few crude tankers or product tankers get through at all," he explained. "If it's 10 vessels a day, you'd be lucky to see two of those being oil tankers."

Oil production in Qatar, Iraq and parts of Saudi Arabia could take around two months to normalize, he added, while shipping traffic is not expected to return to normal until the fourth quarter.

Bakr, meanwhile, said it may take two months "optimistically" to clear the backlog.  "Realistically speaking, we need a year of recovery to see the supply reach pre-war levels, ehe"