Indonesia Blocks Polymarket After Bets on President’s Early Departure

In brief

• Indonesian authorities blocked Polymarket on Friday, citing violations of local gambling laws.
• The ministry is tracing affiliated social media accounts and warned it would restrict similar services.
• Indonesia joins a list of over 30 countries blocking the platform.

Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs blocked access to Polymarket on Friday, with officials stating that platforms allowing users to wager money on uncertain outcomes remain gambling products even when using blockchain technology or crypto assets.

Alexander Sabar, director general of digital space supervision at Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, said Polymarket's activities involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, placing the platform in violation of Indonesian law. "The government will not make room for any form of gambling online in Indonesia," Sabar said in a translated statement.

The regulatory action followed Polymarket's launch of a market tied to Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's presidency, allowing users to bet on whether the leader would leave office early. The market has so far generated more than $51,000 in trading volume, with traders pricing a 1% chance of Prabowo leaving by May 31 and an 11% chance by the end of 2026.

As well as blocking access to Polymarket and “similar services which were indicated to facilitate gambling practices online,” the Indonesian authorities began tracing all social media accounts affiliated with the crypto-native prediction market platform to ensure comprehensive access restrictions.

Prediction market headwinds

The Indonesian ban reflects a broader regulatory crackdown across Asia, with Taiwan, Thailand, China and Japan having already imposed restrictions on the prediction market platform. India is also in the process of blocking Polymarket and rival prediction market platform Kalshi.

Prediction markets have faced mounting regulatory pressure globally in recent months, with more than 30 countries having banned Polymarket to date.

In the U.S., prediction markets have become the center of a legal tussle between state authorities and the Trump administration over who has the right to regulate the sector, with Minnesota the latest to ban prediction markets—immediately finding itself on the receiving end of a lawsuit from the CFTC and Department of Justice.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig has argued that agencies must set up clear policies around regulating prediction markets for fear of driving them offshore and precipitating FTX-style “implosions.” But he has faced bipartisan pushback over his stance, with lawmakers raising concerns over potential insider trading on the platforms.

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