How Iran is wielding the Strait of Hormuz as leverage

The situation in the Persian Gulf is messy. Officially, the diplomatic channels between the US and Iran remain open, with US President Donald Trump extending the ceasefire this week.

Peace talks, however, seem to be stuck. No new date has been set to continue the negotiations in Islamabad, and announcements — including those made by Trump — about the talks restarting have so far failed to materialize.

According to a Friday report by Iran's Tasnim news agency, there are still no plans to negotiate with the US.

Moreover, any future talks will still have to tackle the Iranian nuclear program, which has served as a flashpoint between Tehran and Washington for decades. Now, negotiators will face another huge challenge — the future use of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran seizes 2 container ships in Strait of Hormuz

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video

Iran hopes to turn the waterway into a source of income. According to a senior Iranian lawmaker cited by Tasnim, the first "toll payments" have already been deposited into Iran's central bank.

Washington and Tehran playing a 'game of patience'

Experts say that the current standoff is less of a traditional military conflict and more of a strategic wrangle for time, influence and resilience.

"At the moment, both sides are playing a kind of tactical game of patience," said Middle Eastern expert Hana Voss from Germany's Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

Iran has already been attacked twice while engaging in talks with the US. Now, Iranian leaders are being extremely cautious regarding new negotiations, according to Voss.

"In Tehran, they are very worried that this could be a ploy, as in, talks happening parallel to military preparations," she told DW.

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire as talks remain on hold

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video

These suspicions go hand in hand with Iran's strategic calculations, says political scientist Pauline Raabe from the Berlin think tank Middle East Minds.

"There is obviously more at stake for Iran, because it's about its own territory," she told DW, adding that, therefore, Iran is deliberately using its leverage.

"Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is undoubtedly in a strong position — it is currently one of the strongest cards it can play," said Raabe.

Iran 'holds the upper hand'

Through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can control the flow of oil and gas out of the Persian Gulf and apply leverage on the global economy.

"It really doesn't take much effort to effectively block the Strait," said Voss.

She adds that mere threats can trigger massive economic effects with shipping companies pulling out and insurers dropping coverage. Moreover, drones and mines create a prolonged risk.

"Tactically speaking, Iran currently holds the upper hand — and that is exactly what creates a strategic advantage,” according to Voss.

Meanwhile, Raabe underlines the military dimension of this development.

"Iran's capability to regularly launch rockets was obviously underestimated," she said. This contradicts the narrative that Iran has been decisively weakened and points to the regime purposefully building up its capacities in recent years.

The potential significance of the Strait of Hormuz may not have filtered through to politicians, according to Raabe.

"There were certainly wargames in which this factor was taken into account," said Voss. "But the question is to what extent this knowledge actually influenced policy."

A clash of ideologies

The conflict also stretches beyond economic and military factors. In an analysis published last month, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy warns that the Iranian regime is ready to "prioritize its ideological mission" of religious and regional dominance over the needs of its population.

Voss agrees that the Iranian leaders are ready to "impose significant hardships" on their own people.

"The level of suffering there has been significantly higher than in Western societies for decades," she said.

Voss also points out that the fighting is stabilizing the regime in the short term. "It leads to internal consolidation."

Bolton on Iran: 'I don't know what Trump's objectives are'

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video

At the same time, internal pressure is rising in the US.

"With prolonged duration (of the war), economic consequences will be more and more noticeable," Raabe said, warning of rising fuel prices and insecurity gripping the financial markets.

While the pressure mounts on Washington to find a diplomatic solution, Tehran is acting with growing confidence, demanding concessions such as sanctions relief or the release of its funds.

Who can hold on for longer?

Iran can also rely on its strategy of asymmetrical warfare to make demands of Washington. According to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Tehran can wield significant influence with sabotage and cyberattacks even after sustaining military setbacks.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy sketches out several possible scenarios to end the US war in Iran, including regime change in Iran and Iran agreeing to resolve the nuclear row.

One of the options is also a "disguised defeat" for the US. This outcome would see Iran maintain at least some elements of its nuclear program, together with its capability to threaten the Hormuz Strait.

In contrast, an "open defeat" would involve Iran simply continuing to fire weapons until the US and Israel are forced to end their military operations due to the mounting "pain on Gulf states and the American public."

In the end, the conflict seems to be boiling down to one single question: Who can hold out for longer as the political, economic, and societal costs of the war escalate?

Experts like Voss and Raabe give the advantage to Tehran.

"Time is working for Iran," Voss told DW.

This article was originally published in German.

Edited by: Emmy Sasipornkarn