How close is the United Kingdom to breaking up?

Stephen Flynn, Westminster leader of the Scottish National Party, spoke with notable confidence:

"There's going to be a constitutional shock on these isles," he told a British broadcaster, expressing hope that the SNP will prevail in Scotland and that Plaid Cymru will win in Wales.

While the Welsh nationalists have not committed to holding a referendum immediately, Plaid Cymru's constitution states that its goal is to "secure independence for Wales in Europe."

Could Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland ultimately go their own way — possibly seeking membership of the European Union, leaving England behind?

Scottish Labour Party head calls for Starmer to resign

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Breaking up is hard to do

For all the noise, experts urge caution. Neither Wales nor Scotland is anywhere close to Brussels — the numbers simply don't stack up yet.

"In Scotland, there is not enough support to ask the UK government to hold another referendum, as it is down to the UK Parliament to grant it. And in Wales, it is more of a backlash against the Labour government in London, rather than anything to do with a desire to break away from the UK," Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London told DW.

Tony Travers of the London School of Economics agrees that there will be no immediate challenge in Wales, adding that the Scottish nationalists are going to be very careful with their timing. Having lost a referendum in 2014, they will want to avoid risking another defeat too soon, he said.

In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein remains committed to a united Ireland. However, under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, this would require a border poll, in which majorities would need to be secured in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Despite holding the first minister post for over two years, Sinn Fein has not yet pushed for such a vote.

Political dissatisfaction growing in the UK

Still, the broader political tremors are unmistakable, and the predicted wins for the nationalists pose a challenge for the UK government.

It reflects broader dissatisfaction with both mainstream parties, Labour and the Conservatives. For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the elections could even be a disaster.

Alongside elections for the devolved governments, councils across England also hold elections — and for Labour, there could be massive losses. Up to 2,000 Labour councillors are predicted to lose their seats.

Starmer's popularity has declined sharply since his landslide victory less than two years ago. According to a recent poll, most Britons describe him as a "poor" or even a "terrible" prime minister.

He has not convinced voters that he is the right man to deliver the change he promised. The economy is stagnant, growth has failed to materialise, and the cost-of-living crisis continues to bite.

Meanwhile, the political landscape is becoming more crowded — and more volatile. Beyond the nationalists, smaller insurgent parties are capitalising on the discontent in the form of the self-proclaimed "ecopopulist" Greens and Nigel Farage's right-wing populist Reform UK party.

Reform UK shaking up political landscape

The Greens, who support wealth taxes to address the cost-of-living crisis, are hoping to take control of councils in major urban centers. They enjoy strong support among younger voters.

Meanwhile, Reform is appealing to voters concerned about immigration, aiming to "deport all illegal migrants" and proposing Trump-style internment camps — in areas that voted Green.

"Put simply, if you vote in a Reform council or Reform MP, we guarantee you won't have a detention center near you. If you vote Green, there's a good chance you will," Zia Yusuf, Reform‘s home affairs spokesman, posted on the social media platform X.

Reform is leading in opinion polls, gaining ground in former industrial heartlands of northern England and the Midlands  — white working-class areas long considered Labour strongholds.

Will Starmer survive as PM?

For Prime Minister Starmer, this could be a fight for survival. A "Starmergeddon," a leadership challenge might be looming, as many MPs are questioning whether he is the right person to lead them into the next election. "It's the scale of the losses that will determine whether or not Starmer survives," noted Tony Travers.

Looming over all of this is the long shadow of Brexit. The vote 10 years ago is crucial in explaining the fragmentation and current instability of British politics.

It has given independence movements fresh impetus — Brexit is unpopular with the public, and the prospect of re-joining the EU is appealing to a significant number of people.

But it also legitimised more radical voting choices, said Travers. "The Brexit vote liberated people to think they could vote in a way that had an impact. It pointed to a disenchantment with mainstream politics and convinced some that they could vote in a way that got them attention, in a way that always voting Labour or Conservative never did."

So, is the United Kingdom "coming apart"? Not quite — at least not yet. But it is undeniably more volatile, more politically fragmented and harder to govern than it was a decade ago. The seams are still holding, but the strain on them is growing.

Edited by: Rob Mudge

UK's Starmer faces uphill battle with Brexit 'reset'

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