How a controversial gas pipeline deal could further stall Bosnia's EU accession

The Southern Interconnection pipeline, designed to connect Bosnia-Herzegovina to a liquefied natural gas terminal in neighboring Croatia, could scupper Bosnian aspirations to join the European Union. 

The project is strategically important for the country, as it would reduce Bosnia's dependence on Russian gas. Following Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU has pushed both member states and candidate countries to cut ties with Russian energy.

For Bosnia, which imports virtually all its gas from Russia, the pipeline could be a key step toward diversification and a link to the European gas market through Croatia.

Why Brussels is worried about Bosnia's pipeline plans

In March, Bosnian lawmakers passed legislation that effectively named a specific company based in the United States, AAFS Infrastructure and Energy, as the project's investor. The firm was only founded in late 2025 and has reportedly no known experience in building pipelines.

This has rung alarm bells in Brussels. Ahead of the deal's final approval, EU Ambassador to Bosnia-Herzegovina Luigi Soreca wrote to Bosnia's leadership, urging them to follow EU rules.

He stressed that authorities must "carefully consider the obligations" under the Energy Community Treaty when drafting energy legislation. To maintain progress toward EU membership, he added, it was "crucial" that laws align with European Commission recommendations.

For the EU, the issue is not the pipeline itself, but how it is being awarded. Brussels supports reducing reliance on Russian energy but insists such projects follow transparent procedures and public procurement rules.

Newly-formed US company sparks questions 

The planned deal has also raised eyebrows in Bosnia. Ivana Korajlic, ofTransparency International in Bosnia-Herzegovina, warned that "avoiding any kind of transparent procedures, avoiding any kind of competition" would set a "very dangerous" precedent.

In her view, AAFS Infrastructure and Energy was chosen to fulfil someone's financial interest. Such "tailor made laws," Korajlic said, serve private interests rather than the public good and are not in line with EU standards.

Korajlic also raises questions about the US company, saying it remains unclear where the reported US$1.5 billion (€1.3 billion) in investment would come from, and whether the firm can carry out a project of this scale.

She noted the company has links to individuals close to US President Donald Trump, combined with reported lobbying efforts, suggest political influence could have played a role in its selection. DW asked the company for comment but did not receive a response before publication.

Bosnia's bumpy path to EU accession

The controversy highlights broader challenges in Bosnia's EU accession process, which has long been marked by slow reforms and political divisions. The country officially applied to join the bloc in 2016 and was granted candidate status in 2022.

Analyst Berta Lopez Domenech, from the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre, told DW that Bosnia's formal EU membership talks started in 2024. However, progress has repeatedly stalled over governance issues and failures to align with EU standards. 

Why Bosnia has Europe on edge again

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Domenech adds Bosnia's inability to adopt necessary laws has, in recent years, caused the EU to backtrack on its requirements and lower its standards. For her, it is "good news" that now the EU is standing by its criticism and insisting that energy security legislation complies with EU guidelines.

EU funding on the line 

But the issue is not just political. Bosnia and other Western Balkan countries risk losing significant EU funding if they fail to deliver on agreed reforms. Bosnia could miss out on nearly €374 million under the EU's Growth Plan for the region if implementation remains delayed.

This could give Brussels important leverage. Freezing funds has previously proved effective in pushing Bosnia toward necessary reforms, Domenech told DW.

Both Domenech and Korajlic underlined it remains unclear whether the EU's intervention will be enough to change the course of the project. But they agreed a change would be in Bosnia-Herzegovina's own interest.

For Korajlic, the outcome will show whether the country's priority is "its alignment with EU standards or fulfilling someone else's interests."

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Edited by: Cai Nebe