Hardware 3 Tesla Vehicles Will Get Unsupervised Full Self Driving Via Hardware Updates? Who’s Most Pissed?

Many of us who bought Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) package several years ago have been highly disappointed with its slow progress, and also repeatedly false claims about the technology. The thing is: Tesla cars produced with “Hardware 3” computers, sensors, etc. were supposed to be buying cars that would fully drive themselves one day — one day very soon, in fact. I bought mine in 2019, in part because Elon Musk said they were on the verge of huge breakthroughs in the software and the cost of FSD was about to skyrocket. I later found out that it was right around that time that Elon and the team decided they had to basically start over and do a complete rewrite of the FSD code because they had gotten stuck at a “local maximum” — a point where they just couldn’t make more significant progress toward full autonomy.

I feel like there were three to four, or perhaps five or more similar periods. But we were promised time and time again that no hardware changes were needed and “Hardware 3” vehicles would reach full autonomy.

Well, on Tesla’s recent quarterly conference call for shareholders and analysts, Elon Musk admitted that the dream was officially over, all of the hype had been wrong, the promises would never be met, and Hardware 3 Tesla vehicles would never achieve unsupervised Full Self Driving.

Of course, by this point, many of us already figured or knew that would be the case. We’ve seen the failed attempts, the see-saw progress and regression, the many edge cases that make unsupervised FSD unsafe. Now the question is, though, who is going to be most pissed about where Tesla is going from here?

Musk and Tesla have tried to pressure FSD owners with Hardware 3 technology to buy a new Tesla with new hardware for 2–3 years now. Last quarter was supposed to be the final final final — for real — time that Tesla would provide the “opportunity” to trade in their Tesla for a new one and transfer FSD (or even just buy a new Tesla, no trade-in required, and transfer FSD). I considered this a few times, but basically paying $30,000 or more for a new vehicle when my current one works fine never came across as a good deal. (Yes, there are other factors at play as well since Musk was critical in getting cruel dictator-wannabe Donald Trump elected and also essentially killed countless people through DOGE and the demolition of USAID.) I was supposedly going to “save” whatever it would have cost me to not have to buy FSD again, but that’s ignoring the huge additional cost of buying a new vehicle, especially on a market where you can get barely used EVs so cheap now.

I’m sure many people gave in, though, and did give in to the pressure to get a Hardware 4 Tesla with much better FSD capability and a fresh promise of one day achieving FSD Unsupervised. Well, I wonder how those people feel now, now that new offers are apparently on the table.

With lawsuits live regarding Elon Musk’s and Tesla’s false promises regarding FSD, Tesla is apparently now offering one of two options for people like me who bought a Hardware 3 vehicle with FSD: 1) an upgrade to the computer and sensors (somehow, someday), or 2) a sizable discount on a new Tesla when trading in the old one. For the first option, “micro-factories” will reportedly be set up in cities across the US to do this complicated task. When are we actually going to see this put in practice? Many would like to know. But, like I said, with this solution, how duped are people going to feel who only upgraded to a new Tesla in recent quarters because they wanted FSD that worked and Elon Musk finally made it sound like the only certain option for that would be getting a new Tesla?

A Tesla owner who has been vocal about this issue on Twitter (now X) for a while now, Miss Jilianne, summed it up well:

“I spent $15,000 on Full Self-Driving…because I believed what was being promised by Tesla, the Board of Directors, and Elon Musk, the CEO.

“Unsupervised driving. No hands, no constant attention. That was the expectation.

“But that’s not what we have.

“Years later, we’re still sitting in the driver’s seat, still fully responsible, still waiting.

“At some point, ‘it’s coming’ stops being reassuring, and starts sounding like an excuse.

“If a company charges that much upfront, there should be real accountability. Not shifting timelines, not vague updates, actual delivery.

“We didn’t pay for potential, we paid for a product.

“And right now…that product hasn’t been delivered.”

Excellently said, but I like this response to that, from Sam Adler, even more:

“This wasn’t just a promise, it was a straight-up contract.A promise would’ve been ‘we have the hardware, we’ll sell FSD someday when it’s ready.’ Instead, you and thousands of others paid $15k upfront and in full for unsupervised autonomy! no hands, no supervision, exactly as promised by Tesla, the board, and Elon. That money was taken years ago for a delivered product, not endless delays. Drivers are still fully responsible. This is a broken deal, not just late delivery. Early owners deserve real accountability.”

The price has indeed varied over the years. I paid $6,000 for it. But the crucial point is that Elon Musk has been making false promises about FSD for nearly a decade! One more response in that thread noted “Selling potential since 2017…” and provided this screenshot:

Hmm … coast to coast without intervention thanks to a smoothly operating FSD in 2017! That’s not a type. That’s almost a decade ago.

In the end, who is going to be most pissed: Tesla owners with FSD and Hardware 3 who have to wait for “micro-factories” to set up and provide us with a hardware upgrade, or former Hardware 3 owners who were convinced to dish out tens of thousands of dollars on a new vehicle to not lose or give up on the dream of unsupervised Full Self Driving? I guess that mostly depends on how long it takes to get these upgrades and how well they’re done.

Update/addendum: Oh, back to the statement on Hardware 3 Tesla vehicles never getting fully autonomous driving, here’s what Musk said on the call last week: “Unfortunately, Hardware 3, I wish it were otherwise, but Hardware 3 simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD. We did think at one point it would have that, but relative to Hardware 4 — it has only ⅛ the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4, and memory bandwidth is one of the key elements needed for unsupervised FSD, and it’s just generally a thing that’s needed for Al.” So, that’s the story … for now.

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