Greece's budget surplus of €5bn blows past forecasts in first quarter of 2026

By Ioannis Karagiorgas with ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ Published on 15/05/2026 - 11:19 GMT+2 Share Comments Share Facebook Twitter Flipboard Send Reddit Linkedin Messenger Telegram VK Bluesky Threads Whatsapp

Greece's primary budget surplus reached €5.175bn in the first three months of 2026 — more than double the €2.298bn target — though the ministry said one-off transfers and early fund receipts inflated the headline figure.

Greece's state budget surplus in the first quarter of 2026 came in more than double its initial target, according to data published by the Ministry of National Economy and Finance.

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The primary surplus reached €5.175 billion, against a forecast of €2.298 billion. In the same period of 2025, the figure stood at €5.148 billion.

The ministry said the headline result was inflated by a series of one-off and time-shifted entries, including advance payments for armaments and investment programmes, transfers to general government bodies, and revenues from the Recovery Fund and the Public Investment Programme.

Stripping those out, the underlying overshoot is estimated at €358m.

On the revenue side, the result was boosted by the early arrival of the seventh Recovery Fund tranche — worth €884m and originally scheduled for June — as well as €461m in additional revenues from the European Investment Fund.

January figures also incorporated transactions related to the 35-year concession contract for the Egnatia Highway motorway.

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Net state budget revenues for January to April reached €25.165 billion, running €2.1 billion ahead of target. Tax revenues totalled €22.743 billion, though stripped of one-off entries from the Egnatia Highway concession and the Elliniko casino, they came to €22.302 billion — a marginal shortfall of €39 million against forecasts.

Tax refunds in the period rose to €2.601 billion, largely driven by a VAT refund linked to the Egnatia Highway concession. Public Investment Programme revenues reached €2.311 billion, well above target.

On the spending side, state budget payments totalled €23.287bn — €686m below forecast, though higher than in 2025.

The bulk of funds went to health, social security and transport, including transfers to the National Organisation for the Provision of Health Services (EOPYY), the Organisation for the Management and Payment of Social Benefits (OPEKA), public hospitals and transport operators.

Investment expenditure came in at €2.938 billion, €593 million below target but above the equivalent figure for last year.

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