Fuel hikes: Is ride-hailing becoming a luxury in Lagos?

Every weekday morning, Blessing Ade leaves her house in Lagos, Nigeria, carrying her baby in a wrap. The first-time mother, who lives in a two-story building, only steps outside when her ride is already waiting at the gate.

"I book my ride before I step out of the house," she told DW. "The ride has to be in front of my gate, not that I'm outside and then standing under the sun." For her, public buses are not an option. "Right now, I'm not thinking bus. I don't even see it as an option. I've canceled it," she added.

Rising fuel prices and fare surges are changing how ride‑hailing is used in Lagos. Some commuters say they rely on ride‑hailing more than ever, while others are cutting back, switching between apps, or abandoning trips when prices rise.

Fuel prices in Nigeria began rising sharply after President Bola Ahmed Tinubuannounced theremoval of the long-standing petrol subsidy during his inauguration speech on May 29, 2023. The spike significantly affected transportation, food prices, and the overall cost of livingin Africa's most populous nation.

Pemi Aderogba, 29, who also lives in Lagos, a city that is home to an estimated 20 million people, according to the UN, says ride‑hailing remains central to how she gets around. "Very often I feel like if I have to go out seven days a week, I would probably use them for six days or even all seven days," Aderogba, who works as a development professional, told DW.

She combines different modes depending on the purpose. For work, she uses Shuttlers and buses, but for most other trips, ride‑hailing dominates. "Most times when I'm going out, aside from work, I always use Uber and inDrive," she explained, adding that she stopped using one platform because "they became very expensive."

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Her approach is practical. "It's just always about the distance and comfort for me," she stressed. "I always want to be comfortable."

Are fuel hikes threatening Nigeria's ride-hailing sector

However, fare increases have prompted some Lagos residents to .

For 35-year-old media practitioner Saanu Olomoda, ride‑hailing once played a much larger role in her routine. "If it were 2 or 3 years ago, I would say yes. Ride-hailing apps played a huge role in my daily life," Olomoda said. "But now no, they play a smaller role because I hardly use them these days."

She still checks prices before traveling, but often leaves the apps when fares rise.

"What I do when the price feels too high, I close the app and go get the yellow bus." The iconic, bright-yellow commercial minibus with twin black stripes, popularly known as danfo, serves as the primary mode of informal public transportation in Lagos. Cancellations have also affected how she plans. "I remember when I had to take an early morning trip; the drivers were canceling, so I had to wait before I could get another ride."

Daniel Björkegren, a researcher who has studied transport patterns in Lagos, says such behavior reflects the structure of the city's transport system. "Since private minibuses (danfo) form such an extensive network, it wouldn't be surprising at all if they were the main fallback option," he told DW.

Ozioma Okafor describes a pattern that has remained largely unchanged, combining ride‑hailing with public transport depending on distance and cost. "On a normal day, I move around in public transport most of the time. Sometimes, hailing apps," he said. "It depends on where I'm going, how much fund is available with me, and how far the distance." He still uses ride‑hailing, but less frequently. "I only use them once in a while now."

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It's not 'business as usual' for Lagos drivers 

Drivers say they are seeing the same pressures reflected in demand. Enahoro Mudi, a full‑time driver in Lagos, says the economics of the job have shifted sharply. "Two to three years ago, driving experience was far better," he told DW.

"Imagine you buy fuel for about 20,000 Naira ($14, €13) or more, and you use that to make about 15,000 or 20,000 before deductions," he added, noting that demand is now concentrated at specific times. "Between 5 a.m. and 7 a.m and weekends these are peak periods," he said. "Normal days are not worth it."

 Another driver, Seun Ola, says rider behavior shifts during price surges.

"Whenever it is time for the rush hour, prices do go up," he explained. "Most riders will switch to another app because they cannot cope with such prices." Some move off the platform entirely. "It is either they switch to another app or they discuss with the drivers," he said. Those discussions, he pointed out, involve negotiating fares directly outside the app.

Nonetheless, for some, like Blessing, ride‑hailing has become essential. Even when she is not traveling with her baby, time remains the deciding factor. "Most times, even if I'm not with my baby, the mindset is I need to get home on time to get to my baby."

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu