'Excellent Window' for Strategic Accumulation as Bitcoin Risk Indicator Flips Bullish

In brief

• Market intelligence firm Glassnode’s risk index and moderate strategy trackers have aligned, hinting at a “cleared risk” environment for Bitcoin.
• Analysts called the current setup “an excellent window for strategic accumulation” pointing to a new all-time high for Bitcoin by year-end.
• Glassnode warns 54% of recent buyers are in profit, with realized profit spiking to $4.4 million, a level that has marked every local top in 2026.

Bitcoin’s sustained bullish market structure over the past three weeks has triggered a clear risk landscape signal that could hint at an extension of the ongoing rally.

The Risk Index—Glassnode’s proprietary metric that quantifies systemic risk on a scale of 0 to 100—is hovering at zero, the lowest possible level, indicating a “cleared risk landscape,” according to a Thursday Telegram post from the market intelligence firm. It also serves as a primary gauge of market health, with a 25 threshold that distinguishes between low- and high-risk regimes.

The Moderate Strategy, which captures upside momentum and exits when conviction fades, has flipped from “Moderate” to “High Confidence.”

The alignment of these models signals a bullish regime, analysts told Decrypt, underscored by sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETPs and aggressive demand from spot buyers.

First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape.

After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market… pic.twitter.com/xWZl8QzcuS

— glassnode (@glassnode) April 20, 2026

“This is an excellent window for strategic accumulation rather than chasing deeper dips,” Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Decrypt. Zhang added that the firm maintains, “a strong conviction for a positive close to 2026, supported by improving market structure and institutional conviction that should drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high.”

“As the US-Iran conflict subsides, bullish bets will continue to propel the market upward in the near term,” Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, told Decrypt.

As a result, Bitcoin hit $79,388 on Wednesday, its highest level in over three months.

Investor sentiment has also seen considerable improvement, resulting in the Fear and Greed Index jumping from “extreme fear” at the start of April to “fear.” Likewise, users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, see a 74% chance that Bitcoin extends its rally toward $84,000 next,up from lows of 62% at the start of the week.

A similar outlook can be seen with Ethereum, with users assigning a 54% chance that the second-largest crypto by market cap pumps to $3,000 next.

“Breaking and holding above $80K would act as a major technical and psychological catalyst, clearing the path for further recovery toward $90K and potentially $100K,” Zhang said.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 0.5% and 2.9%, respectively over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,800, while Ethereum is around $2,330.

What’s next?

Despite Glassnode’s risk indicator and the underlying bullish developments, investors need to exercise caution, analysts argued.

“Risks include the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, restriction of oil flows, and elevated inflation that could lead to rate hikes,” Mei added.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key concern, experts previously told Decrypt.

Additionally, the recent uptrend has pushed 54% of recent buyers into profitable territory, according to Glassnode’s latest report. These buyers are now at a threshold that has historically exhausted bear market rallies.

Short-term holders’ realized profit has spiked to $4.4 million, Glassnode analysts noted. That number is three times the $1.5 million threshold, which “ marked every local top year-to-date, signaling caution in the absence of a meaningful demand catalyst.”

The missing piece remains a fundamental catalyst—whether it’s the CLARITY Act, Fed rate cuts, or a lasting Middle East truce. Until then, the risk landscape may be cleared, but the path above $80,000 is not.

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