Europe could become a chikungunya virus hotspot as heat expands mosquito habitats
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As climate change drives mosquitoes north, Europe and North America are emerging as hotspots for chikungunya virus, a new study warns.
Warmer temperatures may expand mosquito habitats, increasing chikungunya risk areas globally, a new study has found.
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The research, published in the journal Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology and carried out by scientists in China, found that 139 countries or regions are risk zones for chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral disease. This accounts for 21.3% of the world's land mass.
“But we show that under climate change models, the virus will further expand northward into temperate regions, especially northeastern North America, central Europe, and East Asia,” said Dr Ye Xu, co-author of the study.
How does climate alter mosquito behaviour?
Chikungunya has been mainly transmitted by the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti, a species that thrives in human settlements in the tropics.
However, in recent years, global climate change and cross-regional population mobility have influenced the expansion of disease-carrying mosquitoes and the spread of viral variants.
During a chikungunya outbreak in the Indian Ocean in 2005-2006, scientists recorded a mutation in the virus that enhanced its adaptability to a different mosquito, the Asian tiger mosquito.
“Because this mosquito can tolerate cooler conditions better than the yellow fever mosquito, warming may allow it to establish in places that used to be too cold,” said Dr Yang Wu, co-author of the study.
“When suitable mosquitoes become established, the chance of local chikungunya transmission increases.”
Researchers found that warmer temperatures also speed up how fast the virus develops inside the mosquito. With temperatures between 18C and 28C, the virus becomes ready to spread about four to five times faster, increasing outbreak risks.
RelatedHow far can mosquitoes spread?
Chikungunya has become a global health threat, the researchers warned. Indigenous transmission has been reported in 114 countries, placing more than three-quarters of the world’s population at risk.
The case fatality rate is approximately 1.3 per thousand, resulting in an annual loss of approximately 284,000 disability-adjusted life years – a measure of years of healthy life lost due to illness or disability.
To address the future spread, the researchers modelled the requirements of the chikungunya virus and the two mosquito vectors from tens of thousands of geo-tagged records of their presence around the globe.
They projected how their current ranges might change between now and 2100, based on 16 climate scenarios developed by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
These scenarios simulate how greenhouse gas emissions and societal changes might interact by 2100.
While the exact expansion of the disease depended on the chosen climate scenario, north-central Europe, northeastern North America, and eastern Asia consistently emerged as future hotspots.
The virus is not currently endemic to Europe or North America; cases in these regions are restricted to travellers from tropical or subtropical regions.
The researchers found that the geographic extent and outbreak potential of chikungunya are fundamentally determined by its transmission vectors – the mosquitoes carrying the virus.
RelatedHow can countries be prepared?
In 2025, there were 502,264 reported chikungunya cases globally, accounting for 186 deaths across 41 countries and territories, according to the Pan American Health Organization.
This disease burden is projected to escalate under climate change, which is profoundly altering the distribution patterns of infectious diseases, the researchers noted.
“The public does not need to panic, but health systems should prepare early,” warned Dr Xu.
Among the proposed measures, researchers include tracking mosquitoes, training healthcare workers to quickly recognise the virus, strengthening mosquito control, and setting up rapid-response plans before outbreaks occur.
“These steps are especially important in temperate regions where the disease has not been a routine public-health concern,” added Dr Xu.
To anticipate future crises, countries along the identified risk zones, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, China, and Japan, must prioritise pre-emptive vector surveillance and clinical diagnosis training before 2040, the authors noted.
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