Ethiopia votes amid geopolitical rivalries in Horn of Africa

Voters in Ethiopia will cast their ballots on June 1, 2026, while the country faces internal security challenges and heightened competition for power in the Horn of Africa. Regional powers like Egypt, the UAE,Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel are pushing for influence in this strategically vital region, already destabilized by Sudan's conflict and disputes over the Red Sea.

Analysts say the rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)continues to shape regional politics, including competing alignments in Sudan's civil war.

Kebour Ghenna, executive director of Initiative Africa and a former opposition candidate, says opposition parties are fragmented and weak as this election approaches.

"The Ethiopian elections unfold less as a genuine democratic contest and more as a mechanism for maintaining state legitimacy in a context of weakened opposition, regional instability, and growing external geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa," he told DW in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital.

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The government rejects claims that political space is shrinking. Officials point to reforms by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), such as digital voter registration and new monitoring systems, and say opposition parties are responsible for their own decline.

More than 50 million Ethiopians have registered to vote, according to NEBE. Over 10,400 candidates from various political parties and independent candidates are competing at both the federal and regional levels.

Sudan conflict raises tensions

Sudanese officials accused the UAE of launching drone strikes on Khartoum Airport from Ethiopia's Bahir Dar airport. Ethiopia called the claims baseless and accused Sudan of backing armed groups inside Ethiopia.

Sudan has repeatedly accused the UAE of backing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's three-year civil war. Abu Dhabi denies supporting the RSF and says it seeks a negotiated end to the conflict.

Despite regional security featuring prominently in election debates, many Ethiopians remain more concerned about inflation, unemployment, and insecurity.

"Foreign policy issues generally have limited influence on ordinary Ethiopian and African voters compared to immediate socioeconomic realities such as inflation, unemployment, insecurity, corruption, transport costs, and declining living standards," Kebour said.

Why Middle East powers want a foothold in Somaliland

Analysts warn that Middle East tensions, especially involving Iran, Israel and Gulf states, could spill into the Horn of Africa. Rivalries between Saudi/Turkey-aligned countries and those with the UAE/Israel are escalating. Somaliland, a Somali breakaway region bordering Ethiopia, is now a flashpoint.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland in late 2025 angered Somalia and drew threats from Yemen's Houthis, a movement supported by Iran. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned that "any Israeli presence in Somaliland is considered by our armed forces to be a military target," Malik al-Houthi was quoted by the German news agency DPA.

Moses Chrispus Okello, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa, says there is a high risk of escalation in Somaliland, where Israel and the UAE have interests. He adds that tensions could also rise in neighboring Djibouti, where the US and other powers are active.

Okello noted that the Houthis have not joined the US-Israel war with Iran so far. However, any escalation in the Middle East increases the likelihood of their involvement.

"They have historically indicated that any friend of Israel is an enemy. Therefore, in a way, we could say that even if they are quiet, it doesn't preclude the fact that they might very easily reactivate their activity," he told DW.

Okello suggested that if Israel boosts its security presence in Somaliland, it could lead to renewed tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia. A previous dispute over a 2024 Memorandum of Understanding saw Ethiopia seek access to the Red Sea and its major trade routes in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland.

"If Israel increases its activity and links it up with other relations involving Ethiopia and Abu Dhabi, you can see at least an expansion of the theater of conflict," he told DW.

Priyal Singh, an ISS researcher in Pretoria, says Israel's Somaliland policy reflects long-term goals and that military cooperation is unlikely now. "I don't expect hard security cooperation between Somaliland and Israel soon because the Iran situation remains fluid," he told DW.

Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions persist

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly argued that landlocked Ethiopia needs reliable access to the sea. Eritrea's Assab port, just 75 kilometers (46 miles) from Ethiopia's border, is often mentioned in that context, alarming Asmara.

The International Crisis Group warned in February that disputes over sea access and regional security could push Ethiopia and Eritrea toward conflict. Okello, however, says that wider tensions in the Middle East may make immediate conflict less likely.

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"Starting a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia now, at a time when the US and UAE and all these others are caught up in the Middle East, will be a front that will be extremely disorganizing. It will spread the so-called medium superpowers across many theaters," he stated.

The US lifted arms export restrictions on Ethiopia this month, ending measures imposed during the Tigray war. Reports also indicate Washington is considering easing or lifting some sanctions on Eritrea.

As Ethiopians prepare to vote, many remain uncertain about post-election development in a region increasingly shaped by insecurity, economic hardship and geopolitical rivalry.

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu