Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Outstanding Variety Series (Updated: May 22, 2026): Earlier this year, the Television Academy again merged the talk series and scripted variety categories into a single category: outstanding variety series. The move was meant to fix a long-running conundrum, as the pool of eligible late-night talk shows and sketch series continues to shrink. A similar attempt to combine came in Dec. 2020.
Even when the Board of Governors is doing its best to solve a problem, the category has somehow become an even bigger head-scratcher. How is that even possible?
My Variety colleague Michael Schneider, executive TV editor, covered lots of this in his column this week. Nonetheless, we’re here to explain the math, and here is where it gets interesting. Although talk and scripted variety are now grouped together, the Academy still tracks them as separate fields when it comes to nominations, with each field’s slot count tied to its number of submissions.
The rule works like this. If a field has between eight and 19 submissions, divide that number by 4 and round to the nearest whole number to determine the nominee count. If a field has seven or fewer submissions, a peer panel screens every entry, and any show that earns 70% approval gets a nomination, capped at two total.
Last year, the outstanding talk had 13 submissions, which were divided into three nominations. Scripted variety had six submissions, which kicked it into the panel-review track, where two nominees emerged. “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” won its first-ever Emmy for outstanding talk, while “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” took the last iteration of the scripted variety category.
As part of the same rule change, the outstanding variety series is now classified by the Academy as an “area” award. That means nominees in this category aren’t really competing against each other. Each is independently trying to get at least 90% of Emmy voters to answer “yes” to the question, “Does this nominee merit an Emmy?” Hit that mark, and the show wins, no matter if another one also does.
So in theory, if voters overwhelmingly embrace the field, you could see Emmys in the same year for multiple programs in the same race. Of course, 90% is a steep bar even for the most beloved shows. But if no nominee clears the 90% threshold, the show with the highest “yes” percentage takes home the trophy. There will always be at least one winner.
Now for the hard part: this year’s submissions.
Variety is constantly monitoring the field. From last year’s class, Netflix’s “Everybody’s Live With John Mulaney” and Peacock’s “Hart to Heart” did not return this eligibility cycle. However, the cycle welcomes a notable newcomer from the YouTube space: “Royal Court,” created, hosted, written and produced by Brittany Broski, who recruits celebrity guests to her Small Council through a series of tests. The show premiered in July 2023 and has run for three seasons and 62 episodes. It is entirely self-funded by Broski and filmed at OBB Studios in West Hollywood. Guests this past 22-episode season included stars like Paul Mescal, Elijah Wood and the cast of the HBO Max medical drama “The Pitt.”
Broski will compete alongside another major YouTube name — Sean Evans, host of the virally popular “Hot Ones,” who is vying for a spot alongside the late-night class of Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel, Seth Meyers, John Oliver and others.
Kate Elliott/Dropout
Kate Elliott/Dropout
Indie streamer Dropout, which put forward “Very Important People,” hosted by Vic Michaelis last cycle, has put the comedy forward again this year, a move highlighted earlier this week at the company’s first-ever FYC event. Notably, the comedy company also has other programs that could fit comfortably into this arena if they elect to do so next year, with even a few candidates in adjacent categories.
CEO Sam Reich hosts “Game Changer,” but he also emcees the spinoff “Make Some Noise,” which carries more of the DNA of a sketch show than a game show. There is also “Smartypants,” created by Paul Robalino and hosted by Rekha Shankar, which features members of the Smartypants Society, Dropout’s roster of comedians, sharing absurd proposals, passions, hot takes and conspiracy theories. The show has made its mark in only two seasons, with an anticipated third gearing up for a June premiere.
A seemingly distant cousin of Dropout is Smosh, one of the largest sketch-comedy brands on the internet. The company operates several YouTube channels — including Smosh, Smosh Pit, Smosh Games, and SmoshCast — with a combined audience of more than 42 million subscribers. Among its most popular series are “Reddit Stories,” hosted by Shayne Topp and featuring outrageous tales from Reddit users, and “Bit City,” a chaotic comedy show hosted by Angela Giarratana that showcases the cast’s improvisational antics.
There’s also a TV Academy rule for podcasters that prevents expansion in the race. If the show has an “RSS feed,” it is not eligible to submit. That prevents popular video podcasts like “Good Hang” with Amy Poehler and “Call Her Daddy” with Alex Cooper from submitting.
Nonetheless, Variety has confirmed at least 15 submissions, with one still pending (UniMás’ No. 1 talk show, “¡Siéntese Quien Pueda!,” which was also submitted last cycle). If 16 is the final number, that will produce four nominees.
Per the Emmy rules, one of those four spots is guaranteed for a scripted variety program, which will have the fewest internal submissions. The only entries classified as scripted variety this year are “Saturday Night Live,” “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver,” “It’s Florida, Man” and BYU TV’s “Studio C,” returning to the submission deck this year.
In a moment when the general public has rallied behind the late-night class, it’s hard to imagine a lineup that doesn’t reflect that palpable energy, especially coming off Stephen Colbert’s final show on May 21, two separate calls from the President of the United States for Disney to cancel Kimmel and a steady stream of attacks on John Oliver, Seth Meyers and Jon Stewart.
That’s five contenders right there, and that’s before mentioning “Saturday Night Live,” which just wrapped its 51st season. Across every iteration of the variety/sketch category, the long-running sketch comedy created by Lorne Michaels has not missed a programming nomination since 2007. This new category incarnation admittedly looks strange when judging all these programs side by side. How does the TV Academy interpret “SNL” and “The Daily Show” as the same type of program? What if it sets up the NBC staple for its first big snub in nearly 20 years?
Those questions make this category a true nail-biter of the season. But when it comes time to crown a winner, that is when the yes-or-no portion kicks in.
A Television Academy spokesperson tells Variety: “In the first round, voters are selecting nominees, just like they do for pretty much every other category. And what will be announced in July is the nominees in this category. It’s in the second round where they select yes or no for each nominee, leading to the possibility of more than one winner if more than one nominee has 90%+ yeses.”
If you come to the Variety Awards Circuit prediction Emmy pages every Thursday (as you should), you may have noticed this week’s ledger mark (*** = PREDICTED WINNER) showing four next to each of the predicted nominees for outstanding variety series. That was not an error. While 90% is a high bar to clear, Hollywood insiders can be a sentimental group, and how do you say “no” to any of them if all of them can win? (especially in this time of political and global turmoil)
How that will actually be staged during the ceremony itself is a separate question for Jesse Collins and the producing team at NBC. One headache at a time. Let’s get the nominees first.
The Emmy Awards timeline begins with nomination-round voting from June 11-22, with nominations announced on July 8. Final-round voting runs from Aug. 17-26, leading into the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6, culminating with the Emmy Awards ceremony on Sept. 14 on NBC.
Image Credit: YouTube
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