Earth on track for record heat over next 5 years — UN report

The United Nations warned Thursday that in the next five years, global average temperatures could reach record levels.

According to a new World Meteorological Organization report, average annual temperatures over the years 2026-2030 could range from 1.3 C to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average. 

What else does the report say?

The report stated that there was a 75% chance that global average temperatures will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1850–1900 average.

The threshold is the agreed-upon long-term warming limit set in 2015 by the Paris climate agreement.

Scientists, however, believe the chances of global average temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels were "exceptionally unlikely."

Under the 'heat dome': Europe's first heat wave of 2026

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It has also been predicted that the 2024 warm year record was 'likely' to be surpassed.

"It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record," the WMO report stated.

Arctic temperatures over the next five winters have also been predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020.

Northern Europe could see some very wet winters over the next five years, which is one of the key climate hazards for the region, bringing with it the risk of flooding.

El Nino effect in 2027

The WMO also said that predicted average temperatures in the central tropical Pacific pointed towards El Nino conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.

"There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year," said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO's Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.

El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, creating disruptive effects on global weather patterns.

The last El Nino contributed to making 2024 the all-time hottest year on record at around 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

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Edited by: Zac Crellin