Bitcoin’s bull-bear cycle indicator turns green for first time since March 2023

While some experts point to $90,000 as the next explosive level, others caution that this new "early bull" signal isn't a guaranteed crystal ball.

What to know:

• CryptoQuant’s bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since 2023, signaling what analysts say may be an early shift from bear-market behavior toward a recovering market structure.
• Analysts caution that the signal is a regime-shift indicator rather than a precise trading tool, noting that confirmation will depend on sustained demand, liquidity and a decisive break above bitcoin’s stubborn $82,000 resistance level.
• While some market figures, including Arthur Hayes, argue that bitcoin’s bottom near $60,000 is already in and see potential for an explosive move above $90,000 toward $126,000, others stress that onchain metrics should be viewed as broad behavioral guides, not crystal balls.

Cryptoquant’s bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, which could signal that “the market structure is beginning to recover,” said the firm’s onchain market analyst Julio Moreno on Wednesday.

“Historically, this has been an important regime-change signal,” Moreno wrote. “When the indicator moves out of bear territory and enters the early bull zone, it often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.”

For Mati Greenspan, a former eToro senior market analyst and founder at Quantum Economics, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is a regime-shift indicator, not a crystal ball. He said that, “historically, it has been most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset.”

Greenspan said that the real confirmation comes afterward, with sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels. “So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation,” he added.

He recalled that when this indicator turned green in 2019 and again in early 2023 following intense bearish phases, the market transitioned into “stronger bullish trends.” Moreno, however, acknowledged that March 2022 remains a critical exception. Back then, the indicator turned bullish but delivered a false positive, preceding a move into a deeper downtrend.

The analyst also stressed why the current May 2026 is so pivotal. “On one hand, the indicator is showing the first constructive regime shift in years,” he said. “Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear-market asset, and the recovery in the 30-day moving average suggests improving momentum beneath the surface.”

Currently, Bitcoin finds itself in a tug of war similar to 2022. While the onchain metrics are healing, the asset is struggling to decisively flip the $82,000 resistance level, a ceiling that has held firm despite multiple breakthrough attempts this month following a 35% rebound from February's $60,000 lows.

To confirm this bullish signal, bitcoin must overcome the “exhaustion” presently visible in secondary metrics, Moreno suggested. Unlike the clean early-cycle entries of the past this move is clashing with a neutral Fear & Greed index and a complex macroeconomic backdrop.

While Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom, did not mention CryptoQuant’s indicator, he echoed the sentiment that the cycle has shifted, stating he believes Bitcoin already found its bottom at $60,000 earlier this year. Hayes, who also co-founded the BitMEX exchange, pointed to $90,000 as the level at which the rally would turn explosive and head toward its previous high of $126,000.

Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, concluded that while these indicators are useful, they are often misunderstood. “Metrics like MVRV (Market cap versus realized cap) or NUPL (net unrealized profit and loss) were never designed to be precise trading signals,” he said. “They are better viewed as behavioral frameworks for understanding where Bitcoin sits within a broader liquidity cycle.”

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