Bitcoin Jumps to Three-Month High Above $82K on Report of US-Iran Agreement

In brief

• Bitcoin jumped to a three-month high Wednesday, on reports that the U.S. is nearing an agreement to end the war in Iran.
• The reported one-page U.S.-Iran memo would lift sanctions, end nuclear enrichment, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
• Users on prediction market Myriad assign an 87% chance that Bitcoin rallies to $84,000 next.

Bitcoin surged to a three-month high on Wednesday on reports of a U.S.-Iran peace framework and the restoration of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The White House believes it is nearing an agreement with Iran on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war, Axios reported, citing four sources familiar with the matter.

The document, being negotiated by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, would declare an end to hostilities and open a 30-day window for detailed talks on Hormuz transit, Iran's nuclear program, and U.S. sanctions relief.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy separately said it may allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz following a pause in U.S. naval operations in the region, according to reports in state media.

Bitcoin is up 1.4% over the past 24 hours, and is trading at around $82,330, according to CoinGecko data. The S&P 500 climbed 0.85% to a new all-time high of 7,366.25.

West Texas Intermediate crude, on the other hand, fell more than 10% to $93 per barrel, unwinding a key source of inflation pressure that had kept rate-cut expectations subdued.

Since the start of the conflict, Bitcoin has recorded gains of 25% compared to the S&P 500 index’s 8% and gold’s 11% decline.

Bitcoin's one-day relative strength index—a momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100—hit 71 on Wednesday, its highest reading in seven months, last seen when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,080.

Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, have assigned an 87% chance that Bitcoin's next major move is a rally to $84,000 rather than a decline to $55,000—up from 85% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Myriad sentiment on the price of crude oil shifted, with users now putting a 60% chance on WTI crude jumping to $120, down from almost 74% this time yesterday.

The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key provisions within 48 hours, Axios said, cautioning that nothing has been formally agreed. Iran said it would accept a deal only if it was "fair." If talks collapse, U.S. forces would retain the ability to restore the blockade or resume military action, according to the report.

President Trump underscored the stakes in a Truth Social post Wednesday. "Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran," Trump said. "If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before."

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