Bitcoin bounces as big tech earnings fuel optimism; short-term pressures remain

Your day-ahead look for May 1, 2026

What to know:

• Bitcoin climbed to about $77,400 alongside a broader rebound in risk assets after strong earnings from major U.S. tech companies bolstered sentiment.
• Despite the bounce, analysts say crypto remains under short-term pressure from reduced rate-cut expectations, spot bitcoin ETF outflows and heightened geopolitical risk, particularly around oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Traders are focused on the $80,000 resistance level for bitcoin and changes at the Federal Reserve.

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Bitcoin climbed to $77,400, turning higher with other risk assets after earnings reports from the largest U.S. tech companies helped steady markets.

The gains came after Apple (AAPL) joined peers with an earnings report that improved sentiment across the industry. The companies, which include Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), all reported double-digit revenue growth earlier this week.

The earnings reports helped risk assets rise as renewed confidence in the AI growth story pulled investors back into equities and crypto, though the bounce so far reflects relief buying rather than conviction that a new rally has begun.

In a note shared with CoinDesk, crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin said the market is dealing with “short-term pressure with still-mixed structural factors,” including reduced rate-cut hopes, ETF outflows and higher geopolitical risk.

Crypto prices held this week even as oil surged and spot bitcoin ETFs saw more than $400 million of outflows as April came to a close.

Oil remains a key factor. Higher crude prices from the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could feed inflation, making central banks less willing to cut interest rates. That can weigh on crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more attractive.

The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this week, though the four dissenting voices are the most since 1992. Mercado Bitcoin said the decision and the absence of clear rate-cut signals led markets to reprice policy expectations.

“In the short term, the market should remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,” the company's head of research, Rony Szuster, said. “In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.”

Jerome Powell’s chairmanship at the Fed ends on May 15, and Kevin Warsh is expected to chair the June FOMC meeting,which could induce volatility given Warsh’s favor for tightening monetary policy.

The key test remains at $80,000. A break could draw new buyers, while a failed move may trigger selling if leveraged longs unwind. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

What’s trending

• Strategy keeps STRC dividend at 11.5% as stock logs first monthly gain in nine (CoinDesk): Strategy (MSTR) maintained an 11.5% dividend rate for May on its perpetual preferred stock, Stretch (STRC). The volume-weighted average price during April came in at $99.76.
• Oil rises as White House says Iran ceasefire halts 60-day war deadline (CNBC): Oil prices climbed Friday, a day after a volatile session that saw the Brent crude contract for June hit a four-year high of $126.41 before settling at $114.01. West Texas Intermediate futures for June added 0.45% to $105.54.
• Iran threatens painful response if U.S. renews attacks (Reuters): Iran said it would respond with "long and painful strikes" on U.S. positions if Washington renewed attacks and ​restated its claim to the Strait of Hormuz, complicating plans for a coalition to reopen the waterway.
• World shares are mixed with most markets closed for May Day, while oil holds steady at $111 a barrel (AP): Most equity markets are closed for May Day. Among those open, the FTSE 100 fell 0.6% to 10,319.24. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.7% to 59,678.31 as the yen strengthened against the dollar. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9%.

Today’s signal

The weekly plot of the bitcoin price is testing rejection at the $80,000 resistance zone, with RSI showing early signs of a bullish divergence — the price printed a lower low while the RSI held higher — though unconfirmed on a weekly close.

A failure to break above keeps the price range-bound between the 200-day exponential moving average of about $68,000 and that level.

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• Bitcoin is consolidating below recent highs, but historical seasonality, bullish ETF inflows and supportive equity markets point to a potential upside bias in May.
• Still, rising bond yields, especially the U.S. 30-year hitting 5%, and geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict and energy prices pose significant macro headwinds for...

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