Bitcoin at $40,000 would be 'near-unprecedented' statistical outcome, analyst says

Mean-reversion models suggest bearish targets imply a 0.4th percentile event, far beyond typical market corrections.

What to know:

• A drop to $40,000 would place bitcoin in the 0.4th percentile of historical price deviations, making it one of the most statistically extreme events on record.
• At around $78,000, bitcoin currently sits near the 31.5th percentile, indicating a historically weak, but still normal, correction range.

Bitcoin's BTC$77,298.31 recent gains — it's added almost 15% this month — aren't enough to convince some industry observers that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market it entered in October. It is, after all, still 40% below its record.

There may be deeper drops to come, with some, unidentified, forecasters, predicting a drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% drop from its all-time high. The figure comes from bitcoin analyst James Check, who says such a move is unlikely. While not impossible, he said in a post on X, it would be statistically extraordinary.

"Just to make a point, for the bears who want to see $40k.

You may well end up right. However, consider that on a mean reversion basis, averaging relative to nine anchors (a mix of technical, onchain, trend, fast, slow etc), it is a Q 0.4 event.

Lower than $2 Bitcoin in 2011."

After climbing over $126,000 in October, bitcoin slid more than 50% to around $60,000 in February before stabilizing. It was trading Friday near $78,000.

Talking to the bears, Check said their predictions warrant closer scrutiny.

Check points to the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, a composite model that averages multiple key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average, realized price, power law trend and a number of volume-weighted average price measures. The index ranks bitcoin’s price on a historical percentile basis.

When modeled at $40,000, bitcoin registers as a “0.4 event,” meaning it would fall in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes.

“That’s below any meaningful deviation across all major anchors,” Check said.

For context, Check says that would be equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. By contrast, today’s price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges.

“There’s no zero probability in markets,” Check added, “but this would be a near-unprecedented outcome.”

More For You

Trump is expected to speak at his crypto conference in Palm Beach shortly.

What to know:

• Bitcoin slipped about $100 to $77,351 late Friday morning after former President Donald Trump said he had halted a planned diplomatic trip tied to Iran talks.
• Trump canceled a trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who had been expected to travel to Pakistan for a new round of...

How Anthropic’s Mythos model is forcing the crypto industry to rethink everything about security

1 hour ago

Bitcoin falls after Trump reportedly canceled Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's Iran-talks trip

1 hour ago

Mike Tyson, Tether CEO, Cathie Wood among speakers at Trump's 'most exclusive' crypto conference

2 hours ago

Europe’s banks are going all in on crypto

4 hours ago

Coinbase’s Jesse Pollak says AI agents are the next big wave for crypto payments

5 hours ago

Clock is ticking for bitcoin to prevent quantum threat as it could drain 6.9 million BTC including Satoshi’s

8 hours ago

Tether's $344 million USDT freeze linked to U.S. 'Economic Fury' against Iran regime

22 hours ago

U.S. CFTC adds New York to string of states its suing to stop prediction market pushback

20 hours ago

Michael Saylor says the bitcoin winter is over. Some experts agree, with caveats.

Apr 24, 2026

SpaceX's $75 billion IPO could drain the liquidity that's helping lift bitcoin and crypto

Apr 24, 2026

Trump's DOJ drops probe that stood in way of president's pick to run Federal Reserve

Apr 24, 2026

In this article

BTCBTC$77,298.31◢0.44%