Charting New Waters: Energy Routes Emerging as Middle East Crisis Threatens Critical Oil Corridor

Alternative Pathways Gain Urgency Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have severely impacted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping records indicating merely three vessels navigated the waterway within a single 24-hour period. Prior to the onset of hostilities between U.S. and Israeli forces against Iran on February 28, this vital maritime chokepoint had facilitated approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

While more than a dozen tanker vessels briefly transited the Strait after Iran declared it accessible on Friday, hopes for a diplomatic resolution deteriorated on Tuesday. Iran signaled its intention to respond to Washington's seizure of one of its oil carriers and declined participation in fresh negotiations, jeopardizing any potential ceasefire arrangement.

An Unprecedented Supply Disruption

The International Energy Agency has characterized the current supply interruption as the most severe in recorded history, surpassing both the petroleum crises of the 1970s and the combined impact of European energy losses following Russia's military intervention in Ukraine.

Operational Alternative Routes

East–West Pipeline (Saudi Arabia)

Saudi Arabia operates a 1,200-kilometer conduit stretching from inland production areas to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, capable of handling up to seven million barrels daily, with realistic throughput hovering around 4.5 million barrels per day contingent upon port infrastructure and vessel availability. From Yanbu, cargo can proceed northward via the Suez Canal toward European markets or southward through the Bab el-Mandeb strait toward Asian destinations—though this southern passage remains vulnerable to attacks by Yemen-based Houthi forces, who have targeted commercial shipping during recent Gaza hostilities.

Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline (United Arab Emirates)

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, developed by national operator ADNOC and inaugurated in 2012, connects Abu Dhabi's onshore reserves to Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, circumventing the Strait entirely. The 360-kilometer system possesses a throughput capacity of 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels daily. Loading operations at Fujairah have sustained disruptions from unmanned aerial vehicle strikes since late February combat commenced.

Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline (Iraq-Turkey)

Iraq's principal northern export corridor extends from Kirkuk across Kurdish territories to Ceyhan, Turkey's Mediterranean port. The system resumed operations last September following a 30-month suspension that ended with an agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government. As of March 17, Iraqi authorities commenced pumping 170,000 barrels daily with intentions to escalate toward 250,000 barrels daily following export agreement signings by Iraq's national company SOMO with Turkish, Jordanian, and Syrian counterparts.

Goreh-Jask Pipeline (Iran)

According to the International Energy Agency's latest assessment, Iran possesses capability to utilize the Jask terminal, supplied by the one million barrel-daily Goreh-Jask system, establishing an independent Strait bypass. While full terminal construction remains incomplete, preliminary loading operations were successfully executed in 2024.

Proposed Future Alternatives

Iraq–Oman Pipeline

Baghdad announced in September consideration of a pipeline project connecting the southern city of Basra to Duqm, a port facility on the Gulf of Oman. The proposal remains in preliminary planning stages with engineers examining multiple route configurations, including terrestrial pathways through adjacent nations or expensive submarine infrastructure.

Iraq–Jordan Pipeline

A conceptualized one million barrel-daily system would transport petroleum from Basra to Aqaba on Jordan's Red Sea coast, entirely circumventing Hormuz. Initial conception originated in the 1980s with formal approval granted in 2022, yet the initiative remains suspended due to substantial financial requirements, regional security considerations, and competing political interests.

Gulf–Sea of Oman Canal

A hypothetical canal construction mirroring the Suez and Panama models would require excavation through the formidable Hajar Mountain range toward Fujairah. Experts warn such an undertaking would encounter extraordinary technical obstacles and potentially command expenditures exceeding several hundred billion dollars, remaining purely theoretical at present.